Match preview
Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia prediction
Velez Sarsfield
Defensa Y Justicia
Velez Sarsfield
3 in the table · 28 pts from 16
Defensa Y Justicia
10 in the table · 19 pts from 16
Mon, Aug 17, 06:15 PM
Buenos Aires
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Velez Sarsfield the more likely winner at 55%, against 18% for Defensa Y Justicia and 27% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 46%. Behind that: Velez Sarsfield have scored in 17 of 21 league games this season, Defensa Y Justicia in 14 of 20.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Velez Sarsfield win
55%
Draw
27%
Defensa Y Justicia win
18%
What our model expects
Velez SarsfieldPer gameDefensa Y JusticiaNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.6 – 0.8
Total goals 2.4
Both teams score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Over 1.5 goals
71%
Velez Sarsfield clean sheet
43%
Defensa Y Justicia clean sheet
20%
What stands out
Offsides 4.2
19% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Velez Sarsfield 1.6 + Defensa Y Justicia 2.6 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
F. Monzón
Velez Sarsfield
32%
Shots
F. Monzón
Velez Sarsfield
1.9
Velez Sarsfield · on target
F. Monzón
Velez Sarsfield
1
Defensa Y Justicia · on target
D. Barbona
Defensa Y Justicia
0.9
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Velez Sarsfield
At home- 1.91
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 0.64
- conceded
- Scored in 17 of 21
- Clean sheet in 45%
When their goals arrive
Defensa Y Justicia
Away- 1.22
- pts/game
- 1.22
- scored
- 1.56
- conceded
- Scored in 14 of 20
- Clean sheet in 33%
When their goals arrive
Velez Sarsfield · Recent form
- D1-1Boca Juniors
- W1-0Independiente
- W3-1Talleres Cordoba
- W1-0Instituto Cordoba
- L0-1Gimnasia L.P.
Defensa Y Justicia · Recent form
- W2-1Newells Old Boys
- L0-3Estudiantes L.P.
- W2-1Deportivo Riestra
- D1-1Aldosivi
- L1-4Racing Club
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Golazo's model makes Velez Sarsfield the more likely winner at 55%, with the draw at 27%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, at 13%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 46%, and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
More Liga Profesional matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.