Match preview
Platense vs Boca Juniors prediction
Platense
Boca Juniors
Platense
12 in the table · 16 pts from 16
Boca Juniors
2 in the table · 30 pts from 16
Sat, Aug 15, 08:15 PM
Buenos Aires
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Boca Juniors the more likely winner at 45%, against 24% for Platense and 32% for the draw. It projects 2.1 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 42%. Behind that: Platense have scored in 9 of 20 league games this season, Boca Juniors in 18 of 21.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Platense win
24%
Draw
32%
Boca Juniors win
45%
What our model expects
PlatensePer gameBoca JuniorsNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
0.8 – 1.3
Total goals 2.1
Both teams score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Over 1.5 goals
63%
Platense clean sheet
29%
Boca Juniors clean sheet
43%
What stands out
Total goals 2.1
22% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Platense 0.9 scored / 1.3 conceded · Boca Juniors 1.3 / 1.0 per game
Offsides 3
13% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Platense 1.6 + Boca Juniors 1.4 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
A. Lotti
Platense
23%
Shots
M. Giménez
Boca Juniors
1.8
Platense · on target
F. Zapiola
Platense
0.9
Boca Juniors · on target
M. Merentiel
Boca Juniors
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Platense
At home- 0.9
- pts/game
- 0.6
- scored
- 1.4
- conceded
- Scored in 9 of 20
- Clean sheet in 20%
When their goals arrive
Boca Juniors
Away- 1.7
- pts/game
- 1.6
- scored
- 1.1
- conceded
- Scored in 18 of 21
- Clean sheet in 40%
When their goals arrive
Platense · Recent form
- W1-0Independiente
- L0-4Talleres Cordoba
- L1-2Instituto Cordoba
- D2-2Union Santa Fe
- W2-0Corinthians
Boca Juniors · Recent form
- W3-1Deportivo Recoleta
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield
- W1-0Estudiantes L.P.
- D2-2Newells Old Boys
- L0-1O'Higgins
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Platense vs Boca Juniors?
Golazo's model makes Boca Juniors the more likely winner at 45%, with the draw at 32%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Platense vs Boca Juniors?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.1 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Platense vs Boca Juniors?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 42%, and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
More Liga Profesional matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.