Match preview
U. Catolica vs Estudiantes L.P. prediction
U. Catolica
Estudiantes L.P.
U. Catolica
Estudiantes L.P.
2 in the table · 9 pts from 6
Tue, Aug 18, 08:30 PM
Claro Arena, Santiago de Chile
The short answer
Golazo's model makes U. Catolica the more likely winner at 44%, against 25% for Estudiantes L.P. and 31% for the draw. It projects 2.2 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 44%. Behind that: U. Catolica have scored in 6 of 7 league games this season, Estudiantes L.P. in 6 of 7.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
U. Catolica win
44%
Draw
31%
Estudiantes L.P. win
25%
What our model expects
U. CatolicaPer gameEstudiantes L.P.No book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.3 – 0.9
Total goals 2.2
Both teams score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Over 1.5 goals
65%
U. Catolica clean sheet
41%
Estudiantes L.P. clean sheet
28%
What stands out
Total goals 2.2
20% below a typical match · League average 2.7
U. Catolica 2.0 scored / 1.2 conceded · Estudiantes L.P. 1.3 / 0.9 per game
Offsides 4
14% above a typical match · League average 3.5
U. Catolica 2.3 + Estudiantes L.P. 1.8 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
F. Zampedri
U. Catolica
30%
Shots
J. Giani
U. Catolica
2.4
U. Catolica · on target
F. Zampedri
U. Catolica
1.3
Estudiantes L.P. · on target
G. Carrillo
Estudiantes L.P.
1.1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
U. Catolica
At home- 1.33
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 0.67
- conceded
- Scored in 6 of 7
- Clean sheet in 67%
When their goals arrive
Estudiantes L.P.
Away- 0.67
- pts/game
- 0.67
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 6 of 7
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
U. Catolica · Recent form
- D1-1Estudiantes L.P.
- W2-0Cobresal
- L0-3Concepción
- D3-3D. La Serena
- L0-4San Luis
Estudiantes L.P. · Recent form
- D1-1U. Catolica
- L0-2Deportivo Riestra
- L0-1Boca Juniors
- W3-0Defensa Y Justicia
- L0-2Independiente
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win U. Catolica vs Estudiantes L.P.?
Golazo's model makes U. Catolica the more likely winner at 44%, with the draw at 31%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in U. Catolica vs Estudiantes L.P.?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.2 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Estudiantes L.P.?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 44%, and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
More Copa Libertadores matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.