Match preview
Estudiantes L.P. vs U. Catolica prediction
Estudiantes L.P.
U. Catolica
Estudiantes L.P.
2 in the table · 9 pts from 6
U. Catolica
Tue, Aug 11, 08:30 PM
Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata
The short answer
Golazo's model rates this close to even: Estudiantes L.P. 35%, the draw 32%, U. Catolica 33%. It projects 2.2 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 45%. Behind that: Estudiantes L.P. have scored in 5 of 6 league games this season, U. Catolica in 5 of 6.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Estudiantes L.P. win
35%
Draw
32%
U. Catolica win
33%
What our model expects
Estudiantes L.P.Per gameU. CatolicaNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.1 – 1.1
Total goals 2.2
Both teams score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Over 1.5 goals
65%
Estudiantes L.P. clean sheet
35%
U. Catolica clean sheet
34%
What stands out
Total goals 2.2
20% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Estudiantes L.P. 1.3 scored / 0.8 conceded · U. Catolica 1.9 / 1.2 per game
Offsides 4.2
19% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Estudiantes L.P. 1.5 + U. Catolica 2.7 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
F. Zampedri
U. Catolica
25%
Shots
J. Giani
U. Catolica
2.5
Estudiantes L.P. · on target
G. Carrillo
Estudiantes L.P.
1.1
U. Catolica · on target
F. Zampedri
U. Catolica
1.2
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Estudiantes L.P.
At home- 2.33
- pts/game
- 1.33
- scored
- 0.67
- conceded
- Scored in 5 of 6
- Clean sheet in 33%
When their goals arrive
U. Catolica
Away- 3
- pts/game
- 1.67
- scored
- 0.67
- conceded
- Scored in 5 of 6
- Clean sheet in 33%
When their goals arrive
Estudiantes L.P. · Recent form
- L0-1Boca Juniors
- W3-0Defensa Y Justicia
- L0-2Independiente
- W3-0Rosario Central
- W1-0Independiente Medellin
U. Catolica · Recent form
- L0-3Concepción
- D3-3D. La Serena
- L0-4San Luis
- W2-1Deportes Copiapo
- W2-1Everton de Vina
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Estudiantes L.P. vs U. Catolica?
Golazo's model rates the match close to even: Estudiantes L.P. 35%, the draw 32%, U. Catolica 33%. No side is a clear favourite.
What is the most likely score in Estudiantes L.P. vs U. Catolica?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 15%. The model projects 2.2 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Estudiantes L.P. vs U. Catolica?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 45%, and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
More Copa Libertadores matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.