Match preview
Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno prediction
Palmeiras
Cerro Porteno
Palmeiras
Cerro Porteno
Wed, Aug 12, 06:00 PM
Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Palmeiras the more likely winner at 39%, against 29% for Cerro Porteno and 33% for the draw. It projects 2.1 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 43%. Behind that: Palmeiras have scored in 5 of 6 league games this season, Cerro Porteno in 5 of 6.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Palmeiras win
39%
Draw
33%
Cerro Porteno win
29%
What our model expects
PalmeirasPer gameCerro PortenoNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.1 – 0.9
Total goals 2.1
Both teams score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Over 1.5 goals
63%
Palmeiras clean sheet
39%
Cerro Porteno clean sheet
32%
What stands out
Total goals 2.1
23% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Palmeiras 1.8 scored / 0.8 conceded · Cerro Porteno 1.2 / 1.0 per game
Cards 3.7
18% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Palmeiras 1.7 + Cerro Porteno 2.0 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
J. López
Palmeiras
21%
Shots
Vitor Roque
Palmeiras
2.1
Palmeiras · on target
J. López
Palmeiras
1
Cerro Porteno · on target
J. Torres
Cerro Porteno
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Palmeiras
At home- 2
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 5 of 6
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Cerro Porteno
Away- 2
- pts/game
- 0.67
- scored
- 0.33
- conceded
- Scored in 5 of 6
- Clean sheet in 67%
When their goals arrive
Palmeiras · Recent form
- L2-3Fortaleza EC
- W3-0Fortaleza EC
- W4-0Vitoria
- L1-2Atletico-MG
- W3-1Coritiba
Cerro Porteno · Recent form
- L0-1Sportivo Ameliano
- W3-0Sportivo Luqueno
- L1-22 de Mayo
- L1-2Sportivo Trinidense
- W2-0Sporting Cristal
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?
Golazo's model makes Palmeiras the more likely winner at 39%, with the draw at 33%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 15%. The model projects 2.1 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 43%, and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
More Copa Libertadores matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.