Match preview
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle prediction
Deportes Tolima
Independiente del Valle
Deportes Tolima
Independiente del Valle
Tue, Aug 11, 08:30 PM
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
The short answer
Golazo's model rates this close to even: Deportes Tolima 37%, the draw 31%, Independiente del Valle 33%. It projects 2.3 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 49%. Behind that: Deportes Tolima have scored in 6 of 10 league games this season, Independiente del Valle in 4 of 6.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Deportes Tolima win
37%
Draw
31%
Independiente del Valle win
33%
What our model expects
Deportes TolimaPer gameIndependiente del ValleNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.2 – 1.1
Total goals 2.3
Both teams score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Over 1.5 goals
69%
Deportes Tolima clean sheet
32%
Independiente del Valle clean sheet
30%
What stands out
Total goals 2.3
14% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Deportes Tolima 1.3 scored / 1.1 conceded · Independiente del Valle 2.4 / 0.9 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
C. González
Independiente del Valle
23%
Shots
C. González
Independiente del Valle
2.9
Deportes Tolima · on target
K. Flórez
Deportes Tolima
1
Independiente del Valle · on target
C. González
Independiente del Valle
1.4
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Deportes Tolima
At home- 2.2
- pts/game
- 1.8
- scored
- 0.2
- conceded
- Scored in 6 of 10
- Clean sheet in 80%
When their goals arrive
Independiente del Valle
Away- 1.33
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 1.33
- conceded
- Scored in 4 of 6
- Clean sheet in 33%
When their goals arrive
Deportes Tolima · Recent form
- L2-3Independiente Medellin
- W2-1Alianza Valledupar
- L1-2Quindio
- W2-1Junior
- W2-1Quindio
Independiente del Valle · Recent form
- W2-0LDU de Quito
- W1-0Deportivo Cuenca
- W1-0Manta FC
- W3-2Orense SC
- W3-0Tecnico Universitario
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
Golazo's model rates the match close to even: Deportes Tolima 37%, the draw 31%, Independiente del Valle 33%. No side is a clear favourite.
What is the most likely score in Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 15%. The model projects 2.3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 49%, and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
More Copa Libertadores matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.