Match preview
Stoke City vs Swansea prediction
Stoke City
Swansea
Stoke City
17 in the table · 55 pts from 46
Swansea
11 in the table · 64 pts from 46
Sat, Aug 15, 10:00 AM
Bet365 Stadium, Stoke on Trent
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Stoke City the more likely winner at 39%, against 31% for Swansea and 31% for the draw. It projects 2.3 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 48%. Behind that: Stoke City have scored in 29 of 46 league games this season, Swansea in 36 of 46.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Stoke City win
39%
Draw
31%
Swansea win
31%
What our model expects
Stoke CityPer gameSwanseaNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.2 – 1.1
Total goals 2.3
Both teams score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Over 1.5 goals
69%
Stoke City clean sheet
34%
Swansea clean sheet
29%
What stands out
Total goals 2.3
14% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Stoke City 1.4 scored / 1.4 conceded · Swansea 1.2 / 1.4 per game
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
M. Manhoef
Stoke City
19%
Shots
M. Manhoef
Stoke City
1.6
Stoke City · on target
M. Manhoef
Stoke City
0.8
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Stoke City
At home- 1.43
- pts/game
- 1.48
- scored
- 1.22
- conceded
- Scored in 29 of 46
- Clean sheet in 26%
When their goals arrive
Swansea
Away- 1.09
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 1.39
- conceded
- Scored in 36 of 46
- Clean sheet in 22%
When their goals arrive
Stoke City · Recent form
- W2-0Oldham
- D1-1Valencia
- W1-0Everton
- D1-1Crewe
- L0-1SC Braga
Swansea · Recent form
- L0-1Birmingham
- W1-0Leganes
- L0-3Merthyr Town
- W2-0Udinese
- L0-2VfL Bochum
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Stoke City vs Swansea?
Golazo's model makes Stoke City the more likely winner at 39%, with the draw at 31%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Stoke City vs Swansea?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Swansea?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 48%, and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
More Championship matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.