Match preview
Charlton vs Derby prediction
Charlton
Derby
Charlton
19 in the table · 53 pts from 46
Derby
8 in the table · 69 pts from 46
Sat, Aug 15, 10:00 AM
The Valley, London
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Derby the more likely winner at 39%, against 31% for Charlton and 30% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 49%. Behind that: Charlton have scored in 36 of 46 league games this season, Derby in 42 of 46.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Charlton win
31%
Draw
30%
Derby win
39%
What our model expects
CharltonPer gameDerbyNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.1 – 1.3
Total goals 2.4
Both teams score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Over 1.5 goals
70%
Charlton clean sheet
28%
Derby clean sheet
33%
What stands out
Cards 3.8
16% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Charlton 1.8 + Derby 2.0 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Charlton
At home- 1.35
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 1.13
- conceded
- Scored in 36 of 46
- Clean sheet in 35%
When their goals arrive
Derby
Away- 1.43
- pts/game
- 1.57
- scored
- 1.39
- conceded
- Scored in 42 of 46
- Clean sheet in 22%
When their goals arrive
Charlton · Recent form
- W3-1Cheltenham
- L0-3Reading
- W2-0Colchester
- L0-2AFC Wimbledon
- W1-0Gillingham
Derby · Recent form
- L1-2Lincoln
- D1-1Rotherham
- L0-1Burton Albion
- W3-1Mansfield Town
- L1-2Valencia
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Charlton vs Derby?
Golazo's model makes Derby the more likely winner at 39%, with the draw at 30%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Charlton vs Derby?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Derby?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 49%, and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
More Championship matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.