Match preview
Sao Paulo vs Bolívar prediction
Sao Paulo
Bolívar
Sao Paulo
Bolívar
Tue, Aug 18, 08:30 PM
Copa Sudamericana
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Sao Paulo the more likely winner at 44%, against 24% for Bolívar and 32% for the draw. It projects 2.1 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 43%. Behind that: Sao Paulo have scored in 5 of 7 league games this season, Bolívar in 3 of 3.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Sao Paulo win
44%
Draw
32%
Bolívar win
24%
What our model expects
Sao PauloPer gameBolívarNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.3 – 0.9
Total goals 2.1
Both teams score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Over 1.5 goals
64%
Sao Paulo clean sheet
42%
Bolívar clean sheet
28%
What stands out
Total goals 2.1
21% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Sao Paulo 1.1 scored / 1.2 conceded · Bolívar 1.9 / 1.2 per game
Cards 3.8
15% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Sao Paulo 2.0 + Bolívar 1.8 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
D. Asprilla
Bolívar
17%
Shots
R. Matheus
Bolívar
2
Sao Paulo · on target
Luciano
Sao Paulo
0.8
Bolívar · on target
R. Matheus
Bolívar
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Sao Paulo
At home- 2.33
- pts/game
- 1.67
- scored
- 0.33
- conceded
- Scored in 5 of 7
- Clean sheet in 67%
When their goals arrive
Bolívar
Away- 3
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 0
- conceded
- Scored in 3 of 3
- Clean sheet in 100%
When their goals arrive
Sao Paulo · Recent form
- D1-1Bolívar
- L1-2Gremio
- D1-1Flamengo
- L1-2Atletico Paranaense
- L0-1Remo
Bolívar · Recent form
- W4-1San Antonio Bulo Bulo
- D1-1Sao Paulo
- W4-2Aurora
- W2-1Oriente Petrolero
- L0-1Always Ready
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
Golazo's model makes Sao Paulo the more likely winner at 44%, with the draw at 32%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.1 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 43%, and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
More Copa Sudamericana matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.