Match preview
Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors prediction
Deportivo Recoleta
Boca JuniorsPrices as of 08:01 PM
Deportivo Recoleta
Boca Juniors
Tue, Aug 18, 06:00 PM
Copa Sudamericana
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Boca Juniors the more likely winner at 57%, against 17% for Deportivo Recoleta and 26% for the draw. It projects 2.5 goals in total, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 46%. Behind that: Deportivo Recoleta have scored in 7 of 8 league games this season, Boca Juniors in 3 of 3.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Deportivo Recoleta win
17%
Draw
26%
Boca Juniors win
57%
What our model expects
Deportivo RecoletaPer gameBoca JuniorsAnchored to the de-vigged consensus of 24 bookmakers, then expanded into the full picture they don't publish: every scoreline, both teams to score, clean sheets. We tested our own goal model against the market over 1,420 matches and the market won, so this starts from the sharper number. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
0.8 – 1.7
Total goals 2.5
Both teams score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Over 1.5 goals
72%
Deportivo Recoleta clean sheet
19%
Boca Juniors clean sheet
45%
What stands out
Offsides 2.4
30% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Deportivo Recoleta 1.0 + Boca Juniors 1.4 per game
Boca Juniors projected to see 58% of the ball.
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
A. Wlk
Deportivo Recoleta
21%
Shots
A. Wlk
Deportivo Recoleta
2.2
Deportivo Recoleta · on target
A. Wlk
Deportivo Recoleta
1.2
Boca Juniors · on target
M. Merentiel
Boca Juniors
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Deportivo Recoleta
At home- 1
- pts/game
- 0.67
- scored
- 0.67
- conceded
- Scored in 7 of 8
- Clean sheet in 33%
When their goals arrive
Boca Juniors
Away- 1
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 3 of 3
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Deportivo Recoleta · Recent form
- L1-3Boca Juniors
- W3-1Rubio NU
- W3-2Nacional Asuncion
- L1-4Libertad Asuncion
- D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Boca Juniors · Recent form
- W3-1Deportivo Recoleta
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield
- W1-0Estudiantes L.P.
- D2-2Newells Old Boys
- L0-1O'Higgins
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors?
Golazo's model makes Boca Juniors the more likely winner at 57%, with the draw at 26%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors?
The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.5 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 46%, and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
More Copa Sudamericana matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.