Match preview
Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia prediction
Vasco DA Gama
Olimpia
Vasco DA Gama
Olimpia
Thu, Aug 13, 06:00 PM
Rio de Janeiro
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Vasco DA Gama the more likely winner at 41%, against 31% for Olimpia and 29% for the draw. It projects 2.6 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 54%. Behind that: Vasco DA Gama have scored in 7 of 8 league games this season, Olimpia in 5 of 7.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Vasco DA Gama win
41%
Draw
29%
Olimpia win
31%
What our model expects
Vasco DA GamaPer gameOlimpiaNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.4 – 1.2
Total goals 2.6
Both teams score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet
30%
Olimpia clean sheet
24%
What stands out
Cards 3.9
14% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Vasco DA Gama 2.3 + Olimpia 1.6 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
A. Alcaraz
Olimpia
22%
Shots
A. Alcaraz
Olimpia
2.9
Vasco DA Gama · on target
Philippe Coutinho
Vasco DA Gama
1.3
Olimpia · on target
A. Alcaraz
Olimpia
1.2
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Vasco DA Gama
At home- 2.25
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 0.5
- conceded
- Scored in 7 of 8
- Clean sheet in 75%
When their goals arrive
Olimpia
Away- 2.25
- pts/game
- 1.25
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 5 of 7
- Clean sheet in 50%
When their goals arrive
Vasco DA Gama · Recent form
- W3-1Fluminense
- D0-0Fluminense
- W1-0Independiente Medellin
- D1-1Mirassol
- D2-2Independiente Medellin
Olimpia · Recent form
- L0-12 de Mayo
- W5-0Rubio NU
- L0-2Nacional Asuncion
- L0-1Libertad Asuncion
- L2-4Flamengo
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
Golazo's model makes Vasco DA Gama the more likely winner at 41%, with the draw at 29%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.6 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 54%, and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
More Copa Sudamericana matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.