Match preview
Bolívar vs Sao Paulo prediction
Bolívar
Sao Paulo
Bolívar
Sao Paulo
Tue, Aug 11, 08:30 PM
Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz
The short answer
Golazo's model rates this close to even: Bolívar 33%, the draw 33%, Sao Paulo 34%. It projects 2.1 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 44%. Behind that: Bolívar have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, Sao Paulo in 4 of 6.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Bolívar win
33%
Draw
33%
Sao Paulo win
34%
What our model expects
BolívarPer gameSao PauloNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1 – 1.1
Total goals 2.1
Both teams score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Over 1.5 goals
63%
Bolívar clean sheet
35%
Sao Paulo clean sheet
35%
What stands out
Total goals 2.1
22% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Bolívar 1.8 scored / 1.1 conceded · Sao Paulo 1.1 / 1.2 per game
Cards 3.9
13% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Bolívar 1.7 + Sao Paulo 2.2 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
D. Asprilla
Bolívar
21%
Shots
R. Matheus
Bolívar
2
Bolívar · on target
R. Matheus
Bolívar
1
Sao Paulo · on target
Luciano
Sao Paulo
0.9
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Bolívar
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 3
- scored
- 2
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Sao Paulo
Away- 1.67
- pts/game
- 0.33
- scored
- 0
- conceded
- Scored in 4 of 6
- Clean sheet in 100%
When their goals arrive
Bolívar · Recent form
- W4-2Aurora
- W2-1Oriente Petrolero
- L0-1Always Ready
- W1-0Gremio
- W2-1Real Potosí
Sao Paulo · Recent form
- L1-2Gremio
- D1-1Flamengo
- L1-2Atletico Paranaense
- L0-1Remo
- W2-0Boston River
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?
Golazo's model rates the match close to even: Bolívar 33%, the draw 33%, Sao Paulo 34%. No side is a clear favourite.
What is the most likely score in Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 15%. The model projects 2.1 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 44%, and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
More Copa Sudamericana matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.