Match preview
Derby vs Cardiff prediction
Derby
Cardiff
Derby
17 in the table · 0 pts from 1
Cardiff
15 in the table · 0 pts from 0
Sat, Aug 22, 10:00 AM
Pride Park, Derby
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Cardiff the more likely winner at 42%, against 34% for Derby and 23% for the draw. It projects 3.6 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%, and puts both teams scoring at 71%. Behind that: Derby have scored in 42 of 46 league games this season, Cardiff in 31 of 46.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Derby win
34%
Draw
23%
Cardiff win
42%
What our model expects
DerbyPer gameCardiffBuilt from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.7 – 1.9
Total goals 3.6
Both teams score
71%
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Over 1.5 goals
89%
Derby clean sheet
15%
Cardiff clean sheet
18%
What stands out
Total goals 3.6
35% above a typical match · League average 2.7
Derby 1.4 scored / 1.3 conceded · Cardiff 2.2 / 1.5 per game
Cards 3.8
15% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Derby 2.2 + Cardiff 1.7 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
S. Szmodics
Derby
32%
Shots
S. Szmodics
Derby
1.5
Derby · on target
S. Szmodics
Derby
0.8
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Derby
At home- 1.57
- pts/game
- 1.35
- scored
- 1.17
- conceded
- Scored in 42 of 46
- Clean sheet in 30%
When their goals arrive
Cardiff
Away- 0.74
- pts/game
- 1.04
- scored
- 2
- conceded
- Scored in 31 of 46
- Clean sheet in 9%
When their goals arrive
Derby · Recent form
- L1-2Charlton
- L1-2Lincoln
- D1-1Rotherham
- L0-1Burton Albion
- W3-1Mansfield Town
Cardiff · Recent form
No finished games on record yet.
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Derby vs Cardiff?
Golazo's model makes Cardiff the more likely winner at 42%, with the draw at 23%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Derby vs Cardiff?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 10%. The model projects 3.6 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Cardiff?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 71%, and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
More Championship matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.