Match preview
Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta prediction
Boca Juniors
Deportivo Recoleta
Tue, Aug 11, 06:00 PM
Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Boca Juniors the more likely winner at 70%, against 9% for Deportivo Recoleta and 21% for the draw. It projects 2.7 goals in total, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 41%. Behind that: Boca Juniors have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, Deportivo Recoleta in 6 of 7.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Boca Juniors win
70%
Draw
21%
Deportivo Recoleta win
9%
What our model expects
Anchored to the de-vigged consensus of 22 bookmakers, then expanded into the full picture they don't publish: every scoreline, both teams to score, clean sheets. We tested our own goal model against the market over 1,420 matches and the market won, so this starts from the sharper number. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
2 – 0.6
Total goals 2.7
Both teams score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Boca Juniors clean sheet
54%
Deportivo Recoleta clean sheet
13%
What stands out
match.offsides 2.3
36% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Boca Juniors 1.3 + Deportivo Recoleta 1.0 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
A. Wlk
Deportivo Recoleta
21%
Shots
A. Wlk
Deportivo Recoleta
2.2
Boca Juniors · on target
M. Merentiel
Boca Juniors
1
Deportivo Recoleta · on target
A. Wlk
Deportivo Recoleta
1.2
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Boca Juniors
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 0
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 100%
When their goals arrive
Deportivo Recoleta
Away- 2
- pts/game
- 1.5
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 6 of 7
- Clean sheet in 25%
When their goals arrive
Boca Juniors · Recent form
- W1-0Estudiantes L.P.
- D2-2Newells Old Boys
- L0-1O'Higgins
- L0-3Deportivo Riestra
- W1-0O'Higgins
Deportivo Recoleta · Recent form
- W3-2Nacional Asuncion
- L1-4Libertad Asuncion
- D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- W1-0San Lorenzo
- W2-1Club Guarani
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Golazo's model makes Boca Juniors the more likely winner at 70%, with the draw at 21%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta?
The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, at 15%. The model projects 2.7 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 41%, and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.