Match preview
Santa Fe vs River Plate prediction
Santa Fe
River Plate
Santa Fe
River Plate
Wed, Aug 12, 08:30 PM
Copa Sudamericana
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Santa Fe the more likely winner at 39%, against 30% for River Plate and 31% for the draw. It projects 2.3 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 48%. Behind that: Santa Fe have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, River Plate in 6 of 6.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Santa Fe win
39%
Draw
31%
River Plate win
30%
What our model expects
Santa FePer gameRiver PlateNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.1
Total goals 2.3
Both teams score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Over 1.5 goals
69%
Santa Fe clean sheet
34%
River Plate clean sheet
29%
What stands out
Total goals 2.3
14% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Santa Fe 1.7 scored / 0.9 conceded · River Plate 1.2 / 1.0 per game
Corners 8.4
16% below a typical match · League average 10
Santa Fe win 3.4 per game, River Plate concede 3.8
Offsides 2.8
19% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Santa Fe 1.2 + River Plate 1.6 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
H. Rodallega
Santa Fe
27%
Shots
H. Rodallega
Santa Fe
2.6
Santa Fe · on target
H. Rodallega
Santa Fe
1.3
River Plate · on target
J. Quintero
River Plate
1.5
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Santa Fe
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 0
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 100%
When their goals arrive
River Plate
Away- 2.33
- pts/game
- 1.33
- scored
- 0.67
- conceded
- Scored in 6 of 6
- Clean sheet in 33%
When their goals arrive
Santa Fe · Recent form
- W2-0Chico
- W2-0Union Magdalena
- D2-2Once Caldas
- W3-0Caracas FC
- L1-2Águilas Doradas
River Plate · Recent form
- L0-1Tigre
- L0-1Rosario Central
- L0-1Gimnasia L.P.
- L0-1Barracas Central
- L1-3Aldosivi
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Santa Fe vs River Plate?
Golazo's model makes Santa Fe the more likely winner at 39%, with the draw at 31%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Santa Fe vs River Plate?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Santa Fe vs River Plate?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 48%, and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
More Copa Sudamericana matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.