Match preview

Cardiff vs Wrexham prediction

Cardiff
v
Wrexham
691714
CardiffDrawWrexham
Goals expectedBoth teams score68%Over 2.5 goals77%Total goals4
Why this pick +Our own read — no book has priced it

Cardiff

Wrexham

7 in the table · 71 pts from 46

Mon, Aug 17, 03:00 PM

Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

The short answer

Golazo's model makes Cardiff the more likely winner at 69%, against 14% for Wrexham and 17% for the draw. It projects 4 goals in total, with 2-1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%, and puts both teams scoring at 68%. Behind that: Cardiff have scored in 31 of 46 league games this season, Wrexham in 40 of 46.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Cardiff win

69%

Draw

17%

Wrexham win

14%

Most likely scorelines2–19%3–18%2–07%

What our model expects

CardiffPer gameWrexham
WWWWLLast 5LLLWW
2.8Expected goals1.3
1.8Cards2.6
5.9Corners4.4
15.1Shots11.8
1.17Points per game1.48
1.0Scored1.2
52Possession48
1.2Conceded1.2

Built from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

2.8 – 1.3

Total goals 4

Both teams score

68%

Over 2.5 goals

77%

Over 1.5 goals

92%

Cardiff clean sheet

29%

Wrexham clean sheet

6%

What stands out

  • Total goals 4

    49% above a typical match · League average 2.7

    Cardiff 2.3 scored / 1.5 conceded · Wrexham 1.2 / 1.5 per game

Corners

League average 5

Cardiff5.9
Wrexham4.4

Cards

League average 2.25

Cardiff1.8
Wrexham2.6

Shots

League average 12.5

Cardiff15.1
Wrexham11.8

Possession

Cardiff52
Wrexham48

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

Cardiff

At home
1.17
pts/game
1.04
scored
1.17
conceded
  • Scored in 31 of 46
  • Clean sheet in 26%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Wrexham

Away
1.48
pts/game
1.22
scored
1.22
conceded
  • Scored in 40 of 46
  • Clean sheet in 30%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Cardiff · Recent form

  • W3-2Swindon Town
  • W4-1AS Roma
  • W5-1Forest Green
  • W6-1Cork City
  • L0-6FC Midtjylland

Wrexham · Recent form

  • L0-1Middlesbrough
  • L0-1Sunderland
  • L0-1Liverpool
  • W3-2Leeds
  • W1-0Manchester United

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

See the full recordHow it works

Common questions

Who will win Cardiff vs Wrexham?

Golazo's model makes Cardiff the more likely winner at 69%, with the draw at 17%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Cardiff vs Wrexham?

The single most likely scoreline is 2-1, at 9%. The model projects 4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Wrexham?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 68%, and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

More Championship matches

All Championship fixtures and the table →

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.