Match preview
Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta prediction
Vila Nova
Ponte Preta
Vila Nova
6 in the table · 34 pts from 21
Ponte Preta
20 in the table · 10 pts from 22
Wed, Aug 19, 07:30 PM
Brasileirão Série B
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Vila Nova the more likely winner at 65%, against 13% for Ponte Preta and 22% for the draw. It projects 2.9 goals in total, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 50%. Behind that: Vila Nova have scored in 15 of 21 league games this season, Ponte Preta in 13 of 22.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Vila Nova win
65%
Draw
22%
Ponte Preta win
13%
What our model expects
Vila NovaPer gamePonte PretaNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
2.1 – 0.8
Total goals 2.9
Both teams score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Over 1.5 goals
79%
Vila Nova clean sheet
44%
Ponte Preta clean sheet
13%
What stands out
Fouls 28.8
37% above a typical match · League average 21
Vila Nova 13.6 + Ponte Preta 15.2 per game
Cards 5.3
18% above a typical match · League average 4.5
Vila Nova 1.9 + Ponte Preta 3.4 per game
Offsides 2.6
26% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Vila Nova 1.2 + Ponte Preta 1.4 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Rafa Silva
Vila Nova
38%
Shots
Cristiano
Ponte Preta
2
Vila Nova · on target
Rafa Silva
Vila Nova
0.9
Ponte Preta · on target
Cristiano
Ponte Preta
0.9
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Vila Nova
At home- 2.3
- pts/game
- 1.8
- scored
- 1.1
- conceded
- Scored in 15 of 21
- Clean sheet in 20%
When their goals arrive
Ponte Preta
Away- 0.3
- pts/game
- 0.7
- scored
- 2.3
- conceded
- Scored in 13 of 22
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Vila Nova · Recent form
- W2-0Atletico Goianiense
- L0-1Sport Recife
- L0-2CRB
- W2-1Fortaleza EC
- L0-2Criciuma
Ponte Preta · Recent form
- D1-1Nautico Recife
- L0-2Ceara
- D1-1Athletic Club
- L2-3Operario-PR
- L1-2Goias
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta?
Golazo's model makes Vila Nova the more likely winner at 65%, with the draw at 22%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta?
The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, at 12%. The model projects 2.9 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 50%, and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
More Brasileirão Série B matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.