Match preview
Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife prediction
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
20 in the table · 9 pts from 21
Nautico Recife
14 in the table · 26 pts from 21
Fri, Aug 14, 06:30 PM
Campinas
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Nautico Recife the more likely winner at 52%, against 22% for Ponte Preta and 27% for the draw. It projects 2.6 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 52%. Behind that: Ponte Preta have scored in 12 of 21 league games this season, Nautico Recife in 12 of 21.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Ponte Preta win
22%
Draw
27%
Nautico Recife win
52%
What our model expects
Ponte PretaPer gameNautico RecifeNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1 – 1.7
Total goals 2.6
Both teams score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Ponte Preta clean sheet
19%
Nautico Recife clean sheet
37%
What stands out
Cards 6
33% above a typical match · League average 4.5
Ponte Preta 3.4 + Nautico Recife 2.6 per game
Fouls 29.7
41% above a typical match · League average 21
Ponte Preta 15.5 + Nautico Recife 14.2 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Vinícius
Nautico Recife
41%
Shots
Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
2.4
Ponte Preta · on target
Cristiano
Ponte Preta
0.9
Nautico Recife · on target
Vinícius
Nautico Recife
1.1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Ponte Preta
At home- 0.55
- pts/game
- 0.73
- scored
- 1.64
- conceded
- Scored in 12 of 21
- Clean sheet in 18%
When their goals arrive
Nautico Recife
Away- 1.09
- pts/game
- 1.45
- scored
- 1.55
- conceded
- Scored in 12 of 21
- Clean sheet in 18%
When their goals arrive
Ponte Preta · Recent form
- L0-2Ceara
- D1-1Athletic Club
- L2-3Operario-PR
- L1-2Goias
- L1-2Criciuma
Nautico Recife · Recent form
- D1-1Atletico Goianiense
- D0-0Criciuma
- W2-1Londrina
- L1-2CRB
- L0-2Avai
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife?
Golazo's model makes Nautico Recife the more likely winner at 52%, with the draw at 27%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.6 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 52%, and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
More Brasileirão Série B matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.