Match preview
Fortaleza EC vs São Bernardo prediction
Fortaleza EC
São Bernardo
Fortaleza EC
3 in the table · 35 pts from 21
São Bernardo
12 in the table · 30 pts from 21
Wed, Aug 19, 06:30 PM
Fortaleza
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Fortaleza EC the more likely winner at 39%, against 31% for São Bernardo and 30% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 51%. Behind that: Fortaleza EC have scored in 14 of 21 league games this season, São Bernardo in 17 of 21.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Fortaleza EC win
39%
Draw
30%
São Bernardo win
31%
What our model expects
Fortaleza ECPer gameSão BernardoNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.1
Total goals 2.4
Both teams score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Over 1.5 goals
71%
Fortaleza EC clean sheet
32%
São Bernardo clean sheet
27%
What stands out
Corners 11.3
13% above a typical match · League average 10
Fortaleza EC win 6.0 per game, São Bernardo concede 5.2
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
J. Miritello
Fortaleza EC
30%
Shots
J. Miritello
Fortaleza EC
1.9
Fortaleza EC · on target
Vitinho
Fortaleza EC
1
São Bernardo · on target
Pedro Vitor
São Bernardo
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Fortaleza EC
At home- 2.5
- pts/game
- 1.8
- scored
- 0.8
- conceded
- Scored in 14 of 21
- Clean sheet in 50%
When their goals arrive
São Bernardo
Away- 1.9
- pts/game
- 1.8
- scored
- 1.1
- conceded
- Scored in 17 of 21
- Clean sheet in 20%
When their goals arrive
Fortaleza EC · Recent form
- D1-1Cuiaba
- W3-2Palmeiras
- L0-3Palmeiras
- W1-0Botafogo SP
- L1-2Vila Nova
São Bernardo · Recent form
- L0-1Botafogo SP
- W3-1Operario-PR
- L3-4Ceara
- L1-2Athletic Club
- D1-1Avai
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Fortaleza EC vs São Bernardo?
Golazo's model makes Fortaleza EC the more likely winner at 39%, with the draw at 30%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Fortaleza EC vs São Bernardo?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs São Bernardo?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 51%, and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
More Brasileirão Série B matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.