Match preview
Avai vs Sport Recife prediction
Avai
Sport Recife
Avai
18 in the table · 20 pts from 21
Sport Recife
10 in the table · 32 pts from 21
Wed, Aug 19, 06:30 PM
Ressacada
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Sport Recife the more likely winner at 40%, against 29% for Avai and 31% for the draw. It projects 2.3 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 47%. Behind that: Avai have scored in 14 of 21 league games this season, Sport Recife in 17 of 21.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Avai win
29%
Draw
31%
Sport Recife win
40%
What our model expects
AvaiPer gameSport RecifeNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1 – 1.2
Total goals 2.3
Both teams score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Over 1.5 goals
68%
Avai clean sheet
29%
Sport Recife clean sheet
36%
What stands out
Total goals 2.3
16% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Avai 1.2 scored / 1.3 conceded · Sport Recife 1.3 / 1.1 per game
Fouls 25.2
20% above a typical match · League average 21
Avai 12.9 + Sport Recife 12.3 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Perotti
Sport Recife
28%
Shots
Perotti
Sport Recife
2
Avai · on target
Daniel Penha
Avai
0.8
Sport Recife · on target
Perotti
Sport Recife
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Avai
At home- 1.36
- pts/game
- 1.09
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 14 of 21
- Clean sheet in 45%
When their goals arrive
Sport Recife
Away- 1.6
- pts/game
- 0.9
- scored
- 0.6
- conceded
- Scored in 17 of 21
- Clean sheet in 50%
When their goals arrive
Avai · Recent form
- L0-1CRB
- L0-1Juventude
- W2-1America Mineiro
- D1-1São Bernardo
- W2-0Nautico Recife
Sport Recife · Recent form
- W2-1Londrina
- W1-0Vila Nova
- D1-1Cuiaba
- D1-1Goias
- D2-2Operario-PR
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Avai vs Sport Recife?
Golazo's model makes Sport Recife the more likely winner at 40%, with the draw at 31%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Avai vs Sport Recife?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Sport Recife?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 47%, and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
More Brasileirão Série B matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.