Match preview
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe prediction
Sturm Graz
Fenerbahçe
Tue, Aug 11, 02:30 PM
Merkur-Arena, Graz
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Sturm Graz the more likely winner at 41%, against 29% for Fenerbahçe and 30% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 50%. Behind that: Sturm Graz have scored in 2 of 3 league games this season, Fenerbahçe in 3 of 3.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Sturm Graz win
41%
Draw
30%
Fenerbahçe win
29%
What our model expects
No book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.1
Total goals 2.4
Both teams score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Over 1.5 goals
71%
Sturm Graz clean sheet
34%
Fenerbahçe clean sheet
26%
What stands out
match.offsides 4.4
26% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Sturm Graz 2.3 + Fenerbahçe 2.2 per game
Fouls 25.2
20% above a typical match · League average 21
Sturm Graz 13.5 + Fenerbahçe 11.7 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Talisca
Fenerbahçe
19%
Shots
Talisca
Fenerbahçe
2.5
Sturm Graz · on target
S. Włodarczyk
Sturm Graz
0.7
Fenerbahçe · on target
Talisca
Fenerbahçe
1.4
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Sturm Graz
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 4
- scored
- 0
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 3
- Clean sheet in 100%
When their goals arrive
Fenerbahçe
Away- 1
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 3 of 3
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Sturm Graz · Recent form
- L0-2Fenerbahçe
- D1-1WSG Wattens
- W2-0Heart Of Midlothian
- W3-0Seekirchen
- W4-0Heart Of Midlothian
Fenerbahçe · Recent form
- W2-0Sturm Graz
- D1-1Gornik Zabrze
- W1-0Gornik Zabrze
- W2-1Lask Linz
- W4-0Pogon Szczecin
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?
Golazo's model makes Sturm Graz the more likely winner at 41%, with the draw at 30%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 50%, and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
More Champions League matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.