Match preview

Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Žalgiris: projection vs result

Dinamo Zagreb

Kauno Žalgiris

50

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model makes Dinamo Zagreb the more likely winner at 59%, against 18% for Kauno Žalgiris and 23% for the draw. It projects 3.1 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%, and puts both teams scoring at 57%. Behind that: Dinamo Zagreb have scored in 3 of 3 league games this season, Kauno Žalgiris in 3 of 5. It finished Dinamo Zagreb 5–0 Kauno Žalgiris.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Dinamo Zagreb win

59%

Draw

23%

Kauno Žalgiris win

18%

Most likely scorelines1111%2110%209%

What we said, and what happened

1 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 3.1Actual 5Missed
  • Both teams scoreProjected 57%Actual NoMissed
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 60%Actual YesCalled

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

2 1

Total goals 3.1

Both teams score

57%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

Over 1.5 goals

82%

Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet

35%

Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet

13%

What stands out

  • Total goals 3.1

    14% above a typical match · League average 2.7

    Dinamo Zagreb 2.9 scored / 0.8 conceded · Kauno Žalgiris 1.5 / 1.1 per game

Corners

League average 5

Dinamo Zagreb6.4
Kauno Žalgiris4.6

Cards

League average 2.25

Dinamo Zagreb2.4
Kauno Žalgiris2

Shots

League average 12.5

Dinamo Zagreb18.8
Kauno Žalgiris14.9

Possession

Dinamo Zagreb52
Kauno Žalgiris48

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

D. Beljo

Dinamo Zagreb

20%

Shots

D. Beljo

Dinamo Zagreb

1.9

Dinamo Zagreb · on target

D. Beljo

Dinamo Zagreb

0.8

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

Dinamo Zagreb

At home
3
pts/game
4
scored
1
conceded
  • Scored in 3 of 3
  • Clean sheet in 50%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Kauno Žalgiris

Away
1.33
pts/game
1
scored
2.33
conceded
  • Scored in 3 of 5
  • Clean sheet in 33%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Dinamo Zagreb · Recent form

  • W5-0Kauno Žalgiris
  • W2-0NK Slaven Belupo
  • W3-2FC Thun
  • D1-1FC Thun
  • D0-0LNZ Cherkasy

Kauno Žalgiris · Recent form

  • L0-5Dinamo Zagreb
  • W1-0KI Klaksvik
  • D0-0KI Klaksvik
  • W4-0Šiauliai
  • W3-2Drita

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Žalgiris?

Golazo's model makes Dinamo Zagreb the more likely winner at 59%, with the draw at 23%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Žalgiris?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 11%. The model projects 3.1 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Žalgiris?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 57%, and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

More Champions League matches

All Champions League fixtures and the table

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.