Match preview
Sparta Praha vs Lyon: projection vs result
Sparta Praha
Lyon
2–1
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Sparta Praha the more likely winner at 46%, against 27% for Lyon and 27% for the draw. It projects 2.8 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 57%. Behind that: Sparta Praha have scored in 1 of 1 league games this season, Lyon in 1 of 1. It finished Sparta Praha 2–1 Lyon.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Sparta Praha win
46%
Draw
27%
Lyon win
27%
What we said, and what happened
3 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 2.8Actual 3Called
- Both teams scoreProjected 57%Actual YesCalled
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 53%Actual YesCalled
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.6 – 1.2
Total goals 2.8
Both teams score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Sparta Praha clean sheet
31%
Lyon clean sheet
20%
What stands out
Corners 11.4
14% above a typical match · League average 10
Sparta Praha win 5.7 per game, Lyon concede 5.2
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
J. Mercado
Sparta Praha
19%
Shots
L. Haraslín
Sparta Praha
1.5
Sparta Praha · on target
L. Haraslín
Sparta Praha
0.6
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Sparta Praha
At home- Scored in 1 of 1
When their goals arrive
Lyon
Away- Scored in 1 of 1
When their goals arrive
Sparta Praha · Recent form
- W2-1Lyon
- W3-1Zlin
- L1-3Zbrojovka Brno
- L1-5FC Nordsjaelland
- L0-1Jagiellonia
Lyon · Recent form
- L1-2Sparta Praha
- L0-4Real Betis
- W2-0VfL Wolfsburg
- L0-2Slavia Praha
- W2-1Servette FC
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Sparta Praha vs Lyon?
Golazo's model makes Sparta Praha the more likely winner at 46%, with the draw at 27%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Sparta Praha vs Lyon?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.8 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Lyon?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 57%, and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
More Champions League matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.