Match preview
Ararat-Armenia vs Celje: projection vs result
Ararat-Armenia
Celje
2–1
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Ararat-Armenia the more likely winner at 48%, against 26% for Celje and 26% for the draw. It projects 3 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 59%. Behind that: Ararat-Armenia have scored in 5 of 5 league games this season, Celje in 3 of 3. It finished Ararat-Armenia 2–1 Celje.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Ararat-Armenia win
48%
Draw
26%
Celje win
26%
What we said, and what happened
3 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 3Actual 3Called
- Both teams scoreProjected 59%Actual YesCalled
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 57%Actual YesCalled
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.7 – 1.2
Total goals 3
Both teams score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Over 1.5 goals
81%
Ararat-Armenia clean sheet
29%
Celje clean sheet
18%
Shots
League average 12.5
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
F. Kovačević
Celje
30%
Shots
F. Kovačević
Celje
2.3
Celje · on target
F. Kovačević
Celje
1.5
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Ararat-Armenia
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 0.33
- conceded
- Scored in 5 of 5
- Clean sheet in 67%
When their goals arrive
Celje
Away- 0.5
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 2.5
- conceded
- Scored in 3 of 3
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Ararat-Armenia · Recent form
- W2-1Celje
- W4-3Gandzasar
- L1-2Shamrock Rovers
- W2-0Shamrock Rovers
- L2-3Riga
Celje · Recent form
- L1-2Ararat-Armenia
- D1-1Maribor
- D1-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- D3-3Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- D2-2Mura
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Ararat-Armenia vs Celje?
Golazo's model makes Ararat-Armenia the more likely winner at 48%, with the draw at 26%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Ararat-Armenia vs Celje?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Ararat-Armenia vs Celje?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 59%, and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.