Match preview
Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia prediction
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
Tue, Aug 11, 06:00 PM
Rio de Janeiro
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Fluminense the more likely winner at 57%, against 17% for Independ. Rivadavia and 26% for the draw. It projects 2.5 goals in total, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 46%. Behind that: Fluminense have scored in 4 of 6 league games this season, Independ. Rivadavia in 6 of 6.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Fluminense win
57%
Draw
26%
Independ. Rivadavia win
17%
What our model expects
Anchored to the de-vigged consensus of 37 bookmakers, then expanded into the full picture they don't publish: every scoreline, both teams to score, clean sheets. We tested our own goal model against the market over 1,420 matches and the market won, so this starts from the sharper number. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.7 – 0.8
Total goals 2.5
Both teams score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Over 1.5 goals
72%
Fluminense clean sheet
45%
Independ. Rivadavia clean sheet
19%
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
A. Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
21%
Shots
A. Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
2.4
Fluminense · on target
John Kennedy
Fluminense
1.3
Independ. Rivadavia · on target
M. Fernández
Independ. Rivadavia
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Fluminense
At home- 2
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 1.33
- conceded
- Scored in 4 of 6
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Independ. Rivadavia
Away- 3
- pts/game
- 3
- scored
- 1.33
- conceded
- Scored in 6 of 6
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Fluminense · Recent form
- L1-3Vasco DA Gama
- D0-0Vasco DA Gama
- D0-0Bahia
- D1-1Gremio
- D1-1RB Bragantino
Independ. Rivadavia · Recent form
- L1-2Sarmiento Junin
- W2-1Huracan
- D0-0Atletico Tucuman
- W1-0Tigre
- W3-1Bolívar
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Golazo's model makes Fluminense the more likely winner at 57%, with the draw at 26%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, at 13%. The model projects 2.5 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 46%, and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.