Match preview
Lyon vs Sparta Praha prediction
Lyon
Sparta Praha
Tue, Aug 11, 03:00 PM
Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Lyon the more likely winner at 39%, against 33% for Sparta Praha and 28% for the draw. It projects 2.8 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 57%. Behind that: Lyon have scored in 1 of 1 league games this season, Sparta Praha in 1 of 1.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Lyon win
39%
Draw
28%
Sparta Praha win
33%
What our model expects
No book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.4 – 1.3
Total goals 2.8
Both teams score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Lyon clean sheet
27%
Sparta Praha clean sheet
24%
What stands out
Cards 3.8
16% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Lyon 1.8 + Sparta Praha 2.0 per game
Corners 11.2
12% above a typical match · League average 10
Lyon win 5.8 per game, Sparta Praha concede 5.7
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
J. Mercado
Sparta Praha
16%
Shots
L. Haraslín
Sparta Praha
1.5
Sparta Praha · on target
L. Haraslín
Sparta Praha
0.6
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Lyon
At home- Scored in 1 of 1
When their goals arrive
Sparta Praha
Away- Scored in 1 of 1
When their goals arrive
Lyon · Recent form
- L1-2Sparta Praha
- L0-4Real Betis
- W2-0VfL Wolfsburg
- L0-2Slavia Praha
- W2-1Servette FC
Sparta Praha · Recent form
- W2-1Lyon
- W3-1Zlin
- L1-3Zbrojovka Brno
- L1-5FC Nordsjaelland
- L0-1Jagiellonia
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Lyon vs Sparta Praha?
Golazo's model makes Lyon the more likely winner at 39%, with the draw at 28%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Lyon vs Sparta Praha?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.8 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Sparta Praha?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 57%, and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
More Champions League matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.