Match preview
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz: projection vs result
Fenerbahçe
Sturm Graz
2–0
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Fenerbahçe the more likely winner at 40%, against 30% for Sturm Graz and 30% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 50%. Behind that: Fenerbahçe have scored in 3 of 3 league games this season, Sturm Graz in 2 of 3. It finished Fenerbahçe 2–0 Sturm Graz.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Fenerbahçe win
40%
Draw
30%
Sturm Graz win
30%
What we said, and what happened
2 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 2.4Actual 2Called
- Both teams scoreProjected 50%Actual NoMissed
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 44%Actual NoCalled
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.1
Total goals 2.4
Both teams score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Over 1.5 goals
71%
Fenerbahçe clean sheet
33%
Sturm Graz clean sheet
27%
What stands out
match.offsides 4.4
26% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Fenerbahçe 2.2 + Sturm Graz 2.3 per game
Fouls 25.2
20% above a typical match · League average 21
Fenerbahçe 11.7 + Sturm Graz 13.5 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Talisca
Fenerbahçe
18%
Shots
Talisca
Fenerbahçe
2.1
Fenerbahçe · on target
Talisca
Fenerbahçe
0.9
Sturm Graz · on target
S. Włodarczyk
Sturm Graz
0.7
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Fenerbahçe
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 1.5
- scored
- 0
- conceded
- Scored in 3 of 3
- Clean sheet in 100%
When their goals arrive
Sturm Graz
Away- 1.5
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 3
- Clean sheet in 50%
When their goals arrive
Fenerbahçe · Recent form
- W2-0Sturm Graz
- D1-1Gornik Zabrze
- W1-0Gornik Zabrze
- W2-1Lask Linz
- W4-0Pogon Szczecin
Sturm Graz · Recent form
- L0-2Fenerbahçe
- D1-1WSG Wattens
- W2-0Heart Of Midlothian
- W3-0Seekirchen
- W4-0Heart Of Midlothian
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
Golazo's model makes Fenerbahçe the more likely winner at 40%, with the draw at 30%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 50%, and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.