Match preview
Union Santa Fe vs Lanus prediction
Union Santa Fe
8 in the table · 21 pts from 16
Lanus
6 in the table · 24 pts from 16
Thu, Aug 6, 06:00 PM
Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Union Santa Fe the more likely winner at 41%, against 30% for Lanus and 29% for the draw. It projects 2.6 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 53%. Behind that: Union Santa Fe have scored in 14 of 20 league games this season, Lanus in 11 of 19.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Union Santa Fe win
41%
Draw
29%
Lanus win
30%
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.4 – 1.2
Total goals 2.6
Both teams score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Union Santa Fe clean sheet
31%
Lanus clean sheet
25%
What stands out
match.offsides 4
14% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Union Santa Fe 2.0 + Lanus 2.0 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
C. Tarragona
Union Santa Fe
29%
Shots
M. Estigarribia
Union Santa Fe
2.6
Union Santa Fe · on target
C. Tarragona
Union Santa Fe
1.1
Lanus · on target
M. Moreno
Lanus
1.3
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Union Santa Fe
At home- 1.63
- pts/game
- 1.38
- scored
- 0.63
- conceded
- Scored in 14 of 20
- Clean sheet in 63%
When their goals arrive
Lanus
Away- 1.22
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 1.33
- conceded
- Scored in 11 of 19
- Clean sheet in 22%
When their goals arrive
Union Santa Fe · Recent form
- L0-2Gimnasia M.
- D2-2Platense
- L0-2Independiente
- L0-2Belgrano Cordoba
- W2-1Independ. Rivadavia
Lanus · Recent form
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba
- L0-4Cienciano
- W1-0San Lorenzo
- W2-0Cienciano
- L1-2Instituto Cordoba
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Lanus?
Golazo's model makes Union Santa Fe the more likely winner at 41%, with the draw at 29%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Union Santa Fe vs Lanus?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.6 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe vs Lanus?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 53%, and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
More Liga Profesional matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.