Match preview
Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes L.P.: projection vs result
Boca Juniors
2 in the table · 30 pts from 16
Estudiantes L.P.
1 in the table · 31 pts from 16
1–0
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model rates this close to even: Boca Juniors 34%, the draw 34%, Estudiantes L.P. 32%. It projects 1.9 goals in total, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%, and puts both teams scoring at 40%. Behind that: Boca Juniors have scored in 16 of 19 league games this season, Estudiantes L.P. in 11 of 19. It finished Boca Juniors 1–0 Estudiantes L.P..
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Boca Juniors win
34%
Draw
34%
Estudiantes L.P. win
32%
What we said, and what happened
2 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 1.9Actual 1Missed
- Both teams scoreProjected 40%Actual NoCalled
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 31%Actual NoCalled
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1 – 0.9
Total goals 1.9
Both teams score
40%
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Over 1.5 goals
59%
Boca Juniors clean sheet
39%
Estudiantes L.P. clean sheet
37%
What stands out
Total goals 1.9
28% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Boca Juniors 1.3 scored / 0.9 conceded · Estudiantes L.P. 1.3 / 0.8 per game
match.offsides 2.8
21% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Boca Juniors 1.3 + Estudiantes L.P. 1.5 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
M. Merentiel
Boca Juniors
20%
Shots
A. Gaich
Estudiantes L.P.
1.9
Boca Juniors · on target
M. Merentiel
Boca Juniors
1
Estudiantes L.P. · on target
G. Carrillo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Boca Juniors
At home- 1.56
- pts/game
- 1.11
- scored
- 0.67
- conceded
- Scored in 16 of 19
- Clean sheet in 56%
When their goals arrive
Estudiantes L.P.
Away- 1.88
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 0.38
- conceded
- Scored in 11 of 19
- Clean sheet in 63%
When their goals arrive
Boca Juniors · Recent form
- W1-0Estudiantes L.P.
- D2-2Newells Old Boys
- L0-1O'Higgins
- L0-3Deportivo Riestra
- W1-0O'Higgins
Estudiantes L.P. · Recent form
- L0-1Boca Juniors
- W3-0Defensa Y Justicia
- L0-2Independiente
- W3-0Rosario Central
- W1-0Independiente Medellin
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes L.P.?
Golazo's model rates the match close to even: Boca Juniors 34%, the draw 34%, Estudiantes L.P. 32%. No side is a clear favourite.
What is the most likely score in Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes L.P.?
The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, at 16%. The model projects 1.9 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes L.P.?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 40%, and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
More Liga Profesional matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.