Match preview
Sarmiento Junin vs Independ. Rivadavia: projection vs result
Sarmiento Junin
Independ. Rivadavia
2–1
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Independ. Rivadavia the more likely winner at 47%, against 26% for Sarmiento Junin and 27% for the draw. It projects 2.8 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 57%. Behind that: Sarmiento Junin have scored in 13 of 19 league games this season, Independ. Rivadavia in 17 of 20. It finished Sarmiento Junin 2–1 Independ. Rivadavia.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Sarmiento Junin win
26%
Draw
27%
Independ. Rivadavia win
47%
What we said, and what happened
3 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 2.8Actual 3Called
- Both teams scoreProjected 57%Actual YesCalled
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 53%Actual YesCalled
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.2 – 1.6
Total goals 2.8
Both teams score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Sarmiento Junin clean sheet
19%
Independ. Rivadavia clean sheet
31%
What stands out
match.offsides 4.3
21% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Sarmiento Junin 2.1 + Independ. Rivadavia 2.1 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
A. Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
34%
Shots
A. Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
2.4
Sarmiento Junin · on target
J. Marabel
Sarmiento Junin
0.9
Independ. Rivadavia · on target
M. Fernández
Independ. Rivadavia
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Sarmiento Junin
At home- 1.9
- pts/game
- 1.3
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 13 of 19
- Clean sheet in 50%
When their goals arrive
Independ. Rivadavia
Away- 1.78
- pts/game
- 1.22
- scored
- 0.78
- conceded
- Scored in 17 of 20
- Clean sheet in 44%
When their goals arrive
Sarmiento Junin · Recent form
- W2-1Independ. Rivadavia
- L2-3Banfield
- L2-3Argentinos JRS
- L0-2Boca Juniors
- L0-4Belgrano Cordoba
Independ. Rivadavia · Recent form
- L1-2Sarmiento Junin
- W2-1Huracan
- D0-0Atletico Tucuman
- W1-0Tigre
- W3-1Bolívar
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Sarmiento Junin vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Golazo's model makes Independ. Rivadavia the more likely winner at 47%, with the draw at 27%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Sarmiento Junin vs Independ. Rivadavia?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.8 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Sarmiento Junin vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 57%, and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
More Liga Profesional matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.