Match preview

River Plate vs Rosario Central: projection vs result

River Plate

Rosario Central

0–1

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model rates this close to even: River Plate 34%, the draw 33%, Rosario Central 33%. It projects 2.1 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 43%. It finished River Plate 0–1 Rosario Central.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

River Plate win

34%

Draw

33%

Rosario Central win

33%

Most likely scorelines1–115%0–014%1–012%

What we said, and what happened

2 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 2.1Actual 1Missed
  • Both teams scoreProjected 43%Actual NoCalled
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 35%Actual NoCalled

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.1 – 1

Total goals 2.1

Both teams score

43%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

Over 1.5 goals

63%

River Plate clean sheet

36%

Rosario Central clean sheet

35%

What stands out

  • Total goals 2.1

    23% below a typical match · League average 2.7

    River Plate 1.1 scored / 1.3 conceded · Rosario Central 1.1 / 1.1 per game

  • match.offsides 4.1

    17% above a typical match · League average 3.5

    River Plate 1.9 + Rosario Central 2.2 per game

  • Fouls 23.8

    13% above a typical match · League average 21

    River Plate 11.9 + Rosario Central 11.9 per game

Corners

League average 5

River Plate6.1
Rosario Central3.9

Cards

League average 2.25

River Plate2.3
Rosario Central2.7

Shots

League average 12.5

River Plate16
Rosario Central11.5

Possession

River Plate55
Rosario Central45

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

S. Driussi

River Plate

27%

Shots

J. Quintero

River Plate

2.4

River Plate · on target

J. Quintero

River Plate

1.5

Rosario Central · on target

J. Campaz

Rosario Central

1.2

River Plate · Recent form

  • L0-1Rosario Central
  • L0-1Gimnasia L.P.
  • L0-1Barracas Central
  • L1-3Aldosivi
  • D2-2Flamengo

Rosario Central · Recent form

  • W1-0River Plate
  • D0-0Racing Club
  • L1-2Belgrano Cordoba
  • L0-3Estudiantes L.P.
  • L0-1Independiente del Valle

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

See the full recordHow it works

Common questions

Who will win River Plate vs Rosario Central?

Golazo's model rates the match close to even: River Plate 34%, the draw 33%, Rosario Central 33%. No side is a clear favourite.

What is the most likely score in River Plate vs Rosario Central?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 15%. The model projects 2.1 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in River Plate vs Rosario Central?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 43%, and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

More Liga Profesional matches

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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.