Match preview
Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors: projection vs result
Newells Old Boys
14 in the table · 15 pts from 16
Boca Juniors
2 in the table · 30 pts from 16
2–2
Final
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Boca Juniors the more likely winner at 49%, against 23% for Newells Old Boys and 28% for the draw. It projects 2.6 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 52%. Behind that: Newells Old Boys have scored in 12 of 19 league games this season, Boca Juniors in 16 of 19. It finished Newells Old Boys 2–2 Boca Juniors.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Newells Old Boys win
23%
Draw
28%
Boca Juniors win
49%
What we said, and what happened
1 of 3 called correctly
Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.
- Total goalsProjected 2.6Actual 4Missed
- Both teams scoreProjected 52%Actual YesCalled
- Over 2.5 goalsProjected 48%Actual YesMissed
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1 – 1.6
Total goals 2.6
Both teams score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Newells Old Boys clean sheet
21%
Boca Juniors clean sheet
36%
What stands out
match.offsides 3.1
13% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Newells Old Boys 1.8 + Boca Juniors 1.3 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
I. Ramírez
Newells Old Boys
28%
Shots
M. Giménez
Boca Juniors
1.8
Newells Old Boys · on target
I. Ramírez
Newells Old Boys
0.9
Boca Juniors · on target
M. Merentiel
Boca Juniors
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Newells Old Boys
At home- 1.1
- pts/game
- 0.9
- scored
- 1.2
- conceded
- Scored in 12 of 19
- Clean sheet in 30%
When their goals arrive
Boca Juniors
Away- 1.7
- pts/game
- 1.6
- scored
- 1.1
- conceded
- Scored in 16 of 19
- Clean sheet in 40%
When their goals arrive
Newells Old Boys · Recent form
- D2-2Boca Juniors
- L0-1Independiente
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield
- D1-1Instituto Cordoba
Boca Juniors · Recent form
- W1-0Estudiantes L.P.
- D2-2Newells Old Boys
- L0-1O'Higgins
- L0-3Deportivo Riestra
- W1-0O'Higgins
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors?
Golazo's model makes Boca Juniors the more likely winner at 49%, with the draw at 28%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.6 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 52%, and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
More Liga Profesional matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.