Match preview
Necaxa vs Leon prediction
Necaxa
Leon
Necaxa
8 in the table · 6 pts from 3
Leon
14 in the table · 3 pts from 3
Mon, Aug 17, 09:00 PM
Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Necaxa the more likely winner at 41%, against 36% for Leon and 23% for the draw. It projects 3.7 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%, and puts both teams scoring at 72%. Behind that: Necaxa have scored in 3 of 3 league games this season, Leon in 2 of 3.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Necaxa win
41%
Draw
23%
Leon win
36%
What our model expects
NecaxaPer gameLeonBuilt from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.9 – 1.8
Total goals 3.7
Both teams score
72%
Over 2.5 goals
72%
Over 1.5 goals
90%
Necaxa clean sheet
16%
Leon clean sheet
14%
What stands out
Total goals 3.7
39% above a typical match · League average 2.7
Necaxa 1.3 scored / 1.5 conceded · Leon 1.8 / 1.8 per game
Cards 5.1
12% above a typical match · League average 4.5
Necaxa 2.6 + Leon 2.5 per game
Offsides 2.6
27% below a typical match · League average 3.5
Necaxa 1.1 + Leon 1.4 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
D. Arcila
Leon
36%
Shots
D. Arcila
Leon
2.1
Necaxa · on target
J. Carranza
Necaxa
0.8
Leon · on target
D. Arcila
Leon
1.3
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Necaxa
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 3 of 3
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Leon
Away- 0
- pts/game
- 0
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 3
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Necaxa · Recent form
- L1-3Philadelphia Union
- L0-2Chicago Fire
- L1-3Toluca
- W2-1Monterrey
- W2-1Atlante FC
Leon · Recent form
- W3-2Inter Miami
- W2-1Orlando City SC
- W1-0Nashville SC
- W1-0CF Pachuca
- L0-1Club Tijuana
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Necaxa vs Leon?
Golazo's model makes Necaxa the more likely winner at 41%, with the draw at 23%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Necaxa vs Leon?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 9%. The model projects 3.7 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Necaxa vs Leon?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 72%, and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
More Liga MX matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.