Match preview
Atlante FC vs Toluca prediction
Atlante FC
Toluca
Atlante FC
10 in the table · 4 pts from 3
Toluca
3 in the table · 6 pts from 3
Sat, Aug 15, 07:00 PM
Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Toluca the more likely winner at 40%, against 34% for Atlante FC and 25% for the draw. It projects 3.2 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%, and puts both teams scoring at 65%. Behind that: Atlante FC have scored in 3 of 3 league games this season, Toluca in 3 of 3.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Atlante FC win
34%
Draw
25%
Toluca win
40%
What our model expects
Atlante FCPer gameTolucaBuilt from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.5 – 1.7
Total goals 3.2
Both teams score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Over 1.5 goals
84%
Atlante FC clean sheet
19%
Toluca clean sheet
22%
What stands out
Total goals 3.2
19% above a typical match · League average 2.7
Atlante FC 1.4 scored / 1.5 conceded · Toluca 1.6 / 1.3 per game
Cards 3.6
21% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Atlante FC 1.7 + Toluca 1.9 per game
Fouls 23.8
13% above a typical match · League average 21
Atlante FC 12.7 + Toluca 11.1 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Paulinho
Toluca
41%
Shots
Helinho
Toluca
2.9
Atlante FC · on target
L. Puente
Atlante FC
0.8
Toluca · on target
Helinho
Toluca
1.4
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Atlante FC
At home- 1
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 3 of 3
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Toluca
Away- 3
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 0
- conceded
- Scored in 3 of 3
- Clean sheet in 100%
When their goals arrive
Atlante FC · Recent form
- L0-4Real Salt Lake
- W1-0Vancouver Whitecaps
- W3-2Cruz Azul
- D1-1Club America
- L1-2Necaxa
Toluca · Recent form
- L0-1Los Angeles FC
- W3-0Seattle Sounders
- W3-1Necaxa
- L1-3Cruz Azul
- L1-2U.N.A.M. - Pumas
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Atlante FC vs Toluca?
Golazo's model makes Toluca the more likely winner at 40%, with the draw at 25%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Atlante FC vs Toluca?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 11%. The model projects 3.2 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Atlante FC vs Toluca?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 65%, and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
More Liga MX matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.