Match preview
LDU de Quito vs Mirassol prediction
LDU de Quito
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
Mirassol
Thu, Aug 20, 06:00 PM
Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito
The short answer
Golazo's model makes LDU de Quito the more likely winner at 40%, against 29% for Mirassol and 31% for the draw. It projects 2.2 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 46%. Behind that: LDU de Quito have scored in 5 of 7 league games this season, Mirassol in 5 of 7.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
LDU de Quito win
40%
Draw
31%
Mirassol win
29%
What our model expects
LDU de QuitoPer gameMirassolNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.2 – 1
Total goals 2.2
Both teams score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Over 1.5 goals
66%
LDU de Quito clean sheet
37%
Mirassol clean sheet
30%
What stands out
Total goals 2.2
18% below a typical match · League average 2.7
LDU de Quito 1.4 scored / 0.9 conceded · Mirassol 1.2 / 1.3 per game
Cards 5.2
15% above a typical match · League average 4.5
LDU de Quito 2.9 + Mirassol 2.3 per game
Fouls 23.8
13% above a typical match · League average 21
LDU de Quito 11.9 + Mirassol 11.9 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
M. Estrada
LDU de Quito
26%
Shots
M. Estrada
LDU de Quito
2.7
LDU de Quito · on target
M. Estrada
LDU de Quito
1.3
Mirassol · on target
Nathan Fogaça
Mirassol
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
LDU de Quito
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 2.33
- scored
- 0.67
- conceded
- Scored in 5 of 7
- Clean sheet in 67%
When their goals arrive
Mirassol
Away- 1
- pts/game
- 0.67
- scored
- 1.33
- conceded
- Scored in 5 of 7
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
LDU de Quito · Recent form
- W1-0Aucas
- D1-1Mirassol
- L0-2Independiente del Valle
- W2-1Delfin SC
- W6-0Leones del Norte
Mirassol · Recent form
- L1-5Flamengo
- D1-1LDU de Quito
- L1-3Cruzeiro
- L0-1Gremio
- D1-1Gremio
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?
Golazo's model makes LDU de Quito the more likely winner at 40%, with the draw at 31%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 15%. The model projects 2.2 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in LDU de Quito vs Mirassol?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 46%, and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
More Copa Libertadores matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.