Match preview
Kashiwa Reysol vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction
Kashiwa Reysol
V-varen Nagasaki
Kashiwa Reysol
8 in the table · 20 pts from 18
V-varen Nagasaki
Fri, Aug 21, 06:00 AM
Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Kashiwa Reysol the more likely winner at 45%, against 27% for V-varen Nagasaki and 28% for the draw. It projects 2.6 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 53%. Behind that: Kashiwa Reysol have scored in 12 of 20 league games this season, V-varen Nagasaki in 15 of 20.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Kashiwa Reysol win
45%
Draw
28%
V-varen Nagasaki win
27%
What our model expects
Kashiwa ReysolPer gameV-varen NagasakiNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.5 – 1.1
Total goals 2.6
Both teams score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet
34%
V-varen Nagasaki clean sheet
23%
What stands out
Cards 3.4
25% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Kashiwa Reysol 1.6 + V-varen Nagasaki 1.8 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Thiago Santana
V-varen Nagasaki
27%
Shots
M. Hosoya
Kashiwa Reysol
1.8
Kashiwa Reysol · on target
H. Yamauchi
Kashiwa Reysol
0.9
V-varen Nagasaki · on target
Matheus Jesus
V-varen Nagasaki
0.9
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Kashiwa Reysol
At home- 1.2
- pts/game
- 1.3
- scored
- 1.1
- conceded
- Scored in 12 of 20
- Clean sheet in 30%
When their goals arrive
V-varen Nagasaki
Away- 1.2
- pts/game
- 1.1
- scored
- 1.4
- conceded
- Scored in 15 of 20
- Clean sheet in 20%
When their goals arrive
Kashiwa Reysol · Recent form
- W3-1Tokyo Verdy
- W2-1Mito Hollyhock
- D0-0JEF United Chiba
- L0-1Kyoto Sanga
- W6-2Kyoto Sanga
V-varen Nagasaki · Recent form
- L0-1Fagiano Okayama
- W2-1Kyoto Sanga
- L2-3Utrecht
- L1-3NEC Nijmegen
- W1-0Mito Hollyhock
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Kashiwa Reysol vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Golazo's model makes Kashiwa Reysol the more likely winner at 45%, with the draw at 28%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Kashiwa Reysol vs V-varen Nagasaki?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.6 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Kashiwa Reysol vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 53%, and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
More J1 League matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.