Match preview
Kashima vs Nagoya Grampus prediction
Kashima
Nagoya Grampus
Kashima
1 in the table · 45 pts from 18
Nagoya Grampus
Sat, Aug 15, 05:00 AM
Mercari Stadium, Kashima
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Kashima the more likely winner at 55%, against 20% for Nagoya Grampus and 25% for the draw. It projects 2.8 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 54%. Behind that: Kashima have scored in 19 of 20 league games this season, Nagoya Grampus in 19 of 20.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Kashima win
55%
Draw
25%
Nagoya Grampus win
20%
What our model expects
KashimaPer gameNagoya GrampusNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.8 – 1
Total goals 2.8
Both teams score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Kashima clean sheet
37%
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet
16%
What stands out
Cards 3.4
25% below a typical match · League average 4.5
Kashima 1.8 + Nagoya Grampus 1.6 per game
Offsides 4.2
19% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Kashima 2.4 + Nagoya Grampus 1.8 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Y. Yamagishi
Nagoya Grampus
22%
Shots
Léo Ceará
Kashima
2.2
Kashima · on target
S. Morooka
Kashima
1
Nagoya Grampus · on target
Y. Kimura
Nagoya Grampus
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Kashima
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 1.7
- scored
- 0.2
- conceded
- Scored in 19 of 20
- Clean sheet in 80%
When their goals arrive
Nagoya Grampus
Away- 1.2
- pts/game
- 1.8
- scored
- 2.1
- conceded
- Scored in 19 of 20
- Clean sheet in 20%
When their goals arrive
Kashima · Recent form
- W4-3Yokohama F. Marinos
- W5-0Vegalta Sendai
- W2-0Vissel Kobe
- L0-5Vissel Kobe
- W1-0FC Tokyo
Nagoya Grampus · Recent form
- L0-1Shimizu S-pulse
- L0-1Consadole Sapporo
- L1-2FC Tokyo
- L1-2Machida Zelvia
- D2-2Machida Zelvia
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Kashima vs Nagoya Grampus?
Golazo's model makes Kashima the more likely winner at 55%, with the draw at 25%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Kashima vs Nagoya Grampus?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 2.8 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Kashima vs Nagoya Grampus?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 54%, and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
More J1 League matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.