Match preview

Gillingham vs Luton prediction

Gillingham

Luton

Sat, Aug 8, 10:00 AM

Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham

The short answer

Golazo's model makes Luton the more likely winner at 68%, against 13% for Gillingham and 19% for the draw. It projects 3.3 goals in total, with 0-2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%, and puts both teams scoring at 56%. Behind that: Gillingham have scored in 1 of 1 league games this season, Luton in 0 of 1.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Gillingham win

13%

Draw

19%

Luton win

68%

Most likely scorelines0210%1210%119%

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

0.9 2.4

Total goals 3.3

Both teams score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

Over 1.5 goals

85%

Gillingham clean sheet

10%

Luton clean sheet

39%

What stands out

  • Total goals 3.3

    22% above a typical match · League average 2.7

    Gillingham 1.0 scored / 1.8 conceded · Luton 2.0 / 1.1 per game

Corners

League average 5

Gillingham4.9
Luton5.2

Cards

League average 2.25

Gillingham2
Luton2.2

Shots

League average 12.5

Gillingham10.5
Luton12.8

Possession

Gillingham49
Luton51

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

N. Wells

Luton

29%

Shots

S. Vokes

Gillingham

2.1

Gillingham · on target

S. Vokes

Gillingham

1

Luton · on target

L. Nordås

Luton

1

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

Gillingham

At home
  • Scored in 1 of 1

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Luton

Away
  • Scored in 0 of 1

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Gillingham · Recent form

  • W2-1Ebbsfleet United
  • W1-0Millwall
  • L0-1Charlton
  • W3-0Dover
  • W1-0Shrewsbury

Luton · Recent form

  • L0-1GO Ahead Eagles
  • W2-0Al Kholood
  • D2-2Barnet
  • W5-0Hitchin Town
  • W3-2Bolton

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win Gillingham vs Luton?

Golazo's model makes Luton the more likely winner at 68%, with the draw at 19%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Gillingham vs Luton?

The single most likely scoreline is 0-2, at 10%. The model projects 3.3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Luton?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 56%, and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.