Match preview
AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County prediction
AFC Wimbledon
Newport County
Sat, Aug 8, 10:00 AM
The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Newport County the more likely winner at 42%, against 31% for AFC Wimbledon and 27% for the draw. It projects 2.9 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 59%. Behind that: AFC Wimbledon have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, Newport County in 1 of 2.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
AFC Wimbledon win
31%
Draw
27%
Newport County win
42%
What our model expects
Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.3 – 1.5
Total goals 2.9
Both teams score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Over 1.5 goals
79%
AFC Wimbledon clean sheet
21%
Newport County clean sheet
27%
Shots
League average 12.5
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
M. Stevens
AFC Wimbledon
32%
Shots
Omar Bugiel
AFC Wimbledon
1.7
AFC Wimbledon · on target
M. Browne
AFC Wimbledon
0.8
Newport County · on target
N. Opoku
Newport County
0.7
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
AFC Wimbledon
At home- Scored in 2 of 2
When their goals arrive
Newport County
Away- 3
- pts/game
- 3
- scored
- 2
- conceded
- Scored in 1 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
AFC Wimbledon · Recent form
- L2-3QPR
- L0-1Wealdstone
- W2-0Charlton
- D0-0Norwich
- W2-1Sutton Utd
Newport County · Recent form
- L1-4AS Roma
- W2-1Yeovil Town
- L0-4Reading
- D2-2Bath City
- D0-0Bristol City
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?
Golazo's model makes Newport County the more likely winner at 42%, with the draw at 27%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.9 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 59%, and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
More EFL Cup matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.