Match preview

Middlesbrough vs Wrexham prediction

Middlesbrough

Wrexham

Fri, Aug 7, 03:00 PM

Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough

The short answer

Golazo's model makes Wrexham the more likely winner at 37%, against 31% for Middlesbrough and 31% for the draw. It projects 2.2 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 47%.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Middlesbrough win

31%

Draw

31%

Wrexham win

37%

Most likely scorelines1115%0012%0111%

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.1 1.2

Total goals 2.2

Both teams score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Middlesbrough clean sheet

31%

Wrexham clean sheet

35%

What stands out

  • Total goals 2.2

    17% below a typical match · League average 2.7

    Middlesbrough 1.1 scored / 1.5 conceded · Wrexham 1.1 / 1.1 per game

Corners

League average 5

Middlesbrough5.4
Wrexham4.7

Shots

League average 12.5

Middlesbrough15.5
Wrexham13.6

Possession

Middlesbrough52
Wrexham48

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

J. Windass

Wrexham

33%

Shots

M. Whittaker

Middlesbrough

2

Middlesbrough · on target

M. Whittaker

Middlesbrough

1

Wrexham · on target

J. Windass

Wrexham

1

Middlesbrough · Recent form

  • D3-3Espanyol
  • L1-3Huddersfield
  • D1-1Celtic
  • L0-1Hull City
  • L1-2Southampton

Wrexham · Recent form

  • L0-1Sunderland
  • L0-1Liverpool
  • W3-2Leeds
  • W1-0Manchester United
  • D0-0Wisla Krakow

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win Middlesbrough vs Wrexham?

Golazo's model makes Wrexham the more likely winner at 37%, with the draw at 31%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Middlesbrough vs Wrexham?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 15%. The model projects 2.2 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Wrexham?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 47%, and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.