Match preview

York vs Crawley Town: projection vs result

York

Crawley Town

02

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model makes York the more likely winner at 57%, against 17% for Crawley Town and 26% for the draw. It projects 2.5 goals in total, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 47%. Behind that: York have scored in 0 of 1 league games this season, Crawley Town in 1 of 1. It finished York 0–2 Crawley Town.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

York win

57%

Draw

26%

Crawley Town win

17%

Most likely scorelines1013%1112%2012%

What we said, and what happened

3 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 2.5Actual 2Called
  • Both teams scoreProjected 47%Actual NoCalled
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 46%Actual NoCalled

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.7 0.8

Total goals 2.5

Both teams score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

Over 1.5 goals

73%

York clean sheet

44%

Crawley Town clean sheet

18%

What stands out

  • match.offsides 2.9

    18% below a typical match · League average 3.5

    York 1.6 + Crawley Town 1.3 per game

Corners

League average 5

York5.9
Crawley Town4.1

Cards

League average 2.25

York2.6
Crawley Town2.1

Shots

League average 12.5

York12.8
Crawley Town11.6

Possession

York52
Crawley Town48

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

York

At home
  • Scored in 0 of 1

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Crawley Town

Away
  • Scored in 1 of 1

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

York · Recent form

  • L0-2Crawley Town
  • L1-2Peterborough
  • D2-2Al-Ettifaq
  • L1-5Sunderland
  • L2-4Pickering Town

Crawley Town · Recent form

  • W2-0York
  • L0-1Reading
  • L1-3Oxford United
  • W1-0Eastleigh
  • D0-0Salford City

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win York vs Crawley Town?

Golazo's model makes York the more likely winner at 57%, with the draw at 26%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in York vs Crawley Town?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, at 13%. The model projects 2.5 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in York vs Crawley Town?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 47%, and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.