Match preview

Crewe vs Accrington ST prediction

Crewe

Accrington ST

Sat, Aug 8, 10:00 AM

Alexandra Stadium, Crewe

The short answer

Golazo's model makes Crewe the more likely winner at 50%, against 20% for Accrington ST and 30% for the draw. It projects 2.2 goals in total, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 43%. Behind that: Crewe have scored in 1 of 1 league games this season, Accrington ST in 2 of 3.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

Crewe win

50%

Draw

30%

Accrington ST win

20%

Most likely scorelines1014%1114%0012%

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.4 0.8

Total goals 2.2

Both teams score

43%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Crewe clean sheet

45%

Accrington ST clean sheet

25%

What stands out

  • Total goals 2.2

    18% below a typical match · League average 2.7

    Crewe 1.3 scored / 1.3 conceded · Accrington ST 0.9 / 1.3 per game

Corners

League average 5

Crewe5.7
Accrington ST4.3

Cards

League average 2.25

Crewe2
Accrington ST2

Shots

League average 12.5

Crewe12
Accrington ST11.1

Possession

Crewe51
Accrington ST49

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

E. Tezgel

Crewe

39%

Shots

E. Tezgel

Crewe

2.1

Crewe · on target

E. Tezgel

Crewe

1.1

Accrington ST · on target

J. Woods

Accrington ST

0.9

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

Crewe

At home
  • Scored in 1 of 1

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Accrington ST

Away
  • Scored in 2 of 3

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Crewe · Recent form

  • D0-0Chester
  • L1-2Birmingham
  • W3-0AFC Telford United
  • D1-1Stoke City
  • W3-2Witton Albion

Accrington ST · Recent form

  • D0-0Sheffield Wednesday
  • W1-0Bury
  • W3-0Chorley
  • W1-0Bradford
  • D0-0Blackburn

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

Common questions

Who will win Crewe vs Accrington ST?

Golazo's model makes Crewe the more likely winner at 50%, with the draw at 30%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in Crewe vs Accrington ST?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, at 14%. The model projects 2.2 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in Crewe vs Accrington ST?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 43%, and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

More EFL Cup matches

All EFL Cup fixtures and the table

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.