Match preview

AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS: projection vs result

AIK Stockholm

6 in the table · 22 pts from 15

Orgryte IS

14 in the table · 13 pts from 15

0–3

Final

The short answer

Golazo's model makes AIK Stockholm the more likely winner at 54%, against 21% for Orgryte IS and 25% for the draw. It projects 2.8 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 55%. Behind that: AIK Stockholm have scored in 11 of 15 league games this season, Orgryte IS in 9 of 15. It finished AIK Stockholm 0–3 Orgryte IS.

A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.

Who wins

AIK Stockholm win

54%

Draw

25%

Orgryte IS win

21%

Most likely scorelines1–112%2–110%2–09%

What we said, and what happened

2 of 3 called correctly

Published before kickoff, scored afterwards. We leave the misses up.

  • Total goalsProjected 2.8Actual 3Called
  • Both teams scoreProjected 55%Actual NoMissed
  • Over 2.5 goalsProjected 54%Actual YesCalled

What our model expects

Built from each side's last six games, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.

Expected goals

1.8 – 1.1

Total goals 2.8

Both teams score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

Over 1.5 goals

79%

AIK Stockholm clean sheet

35%

Orgryte IS clean sheet

17%

What stands out

  • Cards 3.4

    23% below a typical match · League average 4.5

    AIK Stockholm 1.7 + Orgryte IS 1.8 per game

Corners

League average 5

AIK Stockholm5.4
Orgryte IS4.5

Cards

League average 2.25

AIK Stockholm1.7
Orgryte IS1.8

Shots

League average 12.5

AIK Stockholm11.8
Orgryte IS11.9

Possession

AIK Stockholm54
Orgryte IS46

Players to watch

Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.

Most likely scorer

N. Christoffersson

Orgryte IS

28%

Shots

Z. Yohanna

AIK Stockholm

2.1

AIK Stockholm · on target

B. Celina

AIK Stockholm

0.8

Orgryte IS · on target

N. Christoffersson

Orgryte IS

1

The record behind it

What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.

AIK Stockholm

At home
1.29
pts/game
1
scored
1.71
conceded
  • Scored in 11 of 15
  • Clean sheet in 29%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

Orgryte IS

Away
0.75
pts/game
0.75
scored
2.63
conceded
  • Scored in 9 of 15
  • Clean sheet in 25%

When their goals arrive

ScoredConceded

AIK Stockholm · Recent form

  • L0-3Orgryte IS
  • D0-0BK Hacken
  • W2-0Gais
  • W2-1Mjallby AIF
  • W2-1IFK Goteborg

Orgryte IS · Recent form

  • W3-0AIK Stockholm
  • L0-2Vasteras SK FK
  • D0-0Djurgardens IF
  • W4-3BK Hacken
  • L0-3Kalmar FF

This is the free half.

The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.

See the full recordHow it works

Common questions

Who will win AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS?

Golazo's model makes AIK Stockholm the more likely winner at 54%, with the draw at 25%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.

What is the most likely score in AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS?

The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 2.8 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.

Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Orgryte IS?

Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 55%, and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

More Allsvenskan matches

All Allsvenskan fixtures and the table →

Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.