Match preview
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves prediction
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
8 in the table · 50 pts from 38
Alaves
14 in the table · 43 pts from 38
Thu, Aug 20, 03:00 PM
Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Rayo Vallecano the more likely winner at 44%, against 26% for Alaves and 31% for the draw. It projects 2.3 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 46%. Behind that: Rayo Vallecano have scored in 26 of 38 league games this season, Alaves in 28 of 38.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Rayo Vallecano win
44%
Draw
31%
Alaves win
26%
What our model expects
Rayo VallecanoPer gameAlavesNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.3 – 1
Total goals 2.3
Both teams score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Over 1.5 goals
67%
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet
39%
Alaves clean sheet
27%
What stands out
Cards 5.8
30% above a typical match · League average 4.5
Rayo Vallecano 3.2 + Alaves 2.7 per game
Total goals 2.3
16% below a typical match · League average 2.7
Rayo Vallecano 1.3 scored / 1.3 conceded · Alaves 1.6 / 1.4 per game
Fouls 24.3
16% above a typical match · League average 21
Rayo Vallecano 12.5 + Alaves 11.8 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Toni Martínez
Alaves
20%
Shots
Toni Martínez
Alaves
2.3
Rayo Vallecano · on target
Sergio Camello
Rayo Vallecano
1
Alaves · on target
Toni Martínez
Alaves
1.1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Rayo Vallecano
At home- 1.63
- pts/game
- 1.26
- scored
- 0.79
- conceded
- Scored in 26 of 38
- Clean sheet in 42%
When their goals arrive
Alaves
Away- 0.84
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 1.63
- conceded
- Scored in 28 of 38
- Clean sheet in 11%
When their goals arrive
Rayo Vallecano · Recent form
- L1-2Sevilla
- L0-3Ipswich
- W3-2Charleroi
- L1-2Feyenoord
- L1-2Heart Of Midlothian
Alaves · Recent form
- W3-0Getafe
- D1-1Racing Santander
- W3-0Castellón
- W1-0Girona
- D1-1Eibar
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Golazo's model makes Rayo Vallecano the more likely winner at 44%, with the draw at 31%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.3 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 46%, and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
More La Liga matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.