Match preview
Atletico Madrid vs Malaga prediction
Atletico Madrid
Malaga
Atletico Madrid
4 in the table · 69 pts from 38
Malaga
Wed, Aug 19, 03:00 PM
Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Malaga the more likely winner at 46%, against 31% for Atletico Madrid and 22% for the draw. It projects 3.8 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%, and puts both teams scoring at 73%.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Atletico Madrid win
31%
Draw
22%
Malaga win
46%
What our model expects
Atletico MadridPer gameMalagaBuilt from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.7 – 2.1
Total goals 3.8
Both teams score
73%
Over 2.5 goals
73%
Over 1.5 goals
90%
Atletico Madrid clean sheet
12%
Malaga clean sheet
18%
What stands out
Total goals 3.8
41% above a typical match · League average 2.7
Atletico Madrid 1.5 scored / 1.7 conceded · Malaga 1.9 / 1.4 per game
Corners 11.4
14% above a typical match · League average 10
Atletico Madrid win 6.3 per game, Malaga concede 5.4
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Chupe
Malaga
46%
Shots
Chupe
Malaga
2.4
Malaga · on target
Adrián Niño Heredia
Malaga
1.5
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Atletico Madrid
At home- 2.42
- pts/game
- 2.05
- scored
- 0.89
- conceded
- Scored in 33 of 38
- Clean sheet in 42%
When their goals arrive
Atletico Madrid · Recent form
- W2-1Marseille
- L1-3Manchester City
- L1-2Manchester United
- W4-1Getafe
- L1-5Villarreal
Malaga · Recent form
- D2-2Fulham
- L1-2AD Ceuta FC
- W4-2Al-Arabi SC
- D2-2Al-Ittihad FC
- D3-3Leicester
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Malaga?
Golazo's model makes Malaga the more likely winner at 46%, with the draw at 22%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Atletico Madrid vs Malaga?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 9%. The model projects 3.8 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Malaga?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 73%, and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.