Match preview
Plymouth vs Exeter City prediction
Plymouth
Exeter City
Mon, Aug 10, 03:00 PM
Home Park, Plymouth
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Plymouth the more likely winner at 62%, against 16% for Exeter City and 22% for the draw. It projects 3.1 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%, and puts both teams scoring at 56%. Behind that: Plymouth have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, Exeter City in 0 of 1.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Plymouth win
62%
Draw
22%
Exeter City win
16%
What our model expects
Anchored to the de-vigged consensus of 33 bookmakers, then expanded into the full picture they don't publish: every scoreline, both teams to score, clean sheets. We tested our own goal model against the market over 1,420 matches and the market won, so this starts from the sharper number. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
2.1 – 1
Total goals 3.1
Both teams score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Over 1.5 goals
82%
Plymouth clean sheet
37%
Exeter City clean sheet
12%
What stands out
Total goals 3.1
15% above a typical match · League average 2.7
Plymouth 1.9 scored / 1.0 conceded · Exeter City 1.2 / 1.7 per game
Shots
League average 12.5
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
L. Tolaj
Plymouth
42%
Shots
L. Tolaj
Plymouth
2.6
Plymouth · on target
L. Tolaj
Plymouth
1.4
Exeter City · on target
J. Wareham
Exeter City
0.9
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Plymouth
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 3
- scored
- 2
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Exeter City
Away- Scored in 0 of 1
When their goals arrive
Plymouth · Recent form
- W4-1Tavistock
- D0-0Bristol City
- W1-0Truro City
- W1-0Torquay
- W3-0Bath City
Exeter City · Recent form
- D1-1Bristol City
- L1-2Torquay
- W2-0Weston-super-Mare
- L0-1Truro City
- L1-2Bradford
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Plymouth vs Exeter City?
Golazo's model makes Plymouth the more likely winner at 62%, with the draw at 22%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Plymouth vs Exeter City?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 10%. The model projects 3.1 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Exeter City?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 56%, and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
More EFL Cup matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.