Match preview
Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka prediction
Kashima
Avispa Fukuoka
Kashima
1 in the table · 45 pts from 18
Avispa Fukuoka
Sat, Aug 22, 05:00 AM
Mercari Stadium, Kashima
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Kashima the more likely winner at 61%, against 14% for Avispa Fukuoka and 26% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%, and puts both teams scoring at 42%. Behind that: Kashima have scored in 19 of 20 league games this season, Avispa Fukuoka in 15 of 20.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Kashima win
61%
Draw
26%
Avispa Fukuoka win
14%
What our model expects
KashimaPer gameAvispa FukuokaNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.7 – 0.7
Total goals 2.4
Both teams score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Over 1.5 goals
70%
Kashima clean sheet
50%
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet
18%
What stands out
Offsides 5
43% above a typical match · League average 3.5
Kashima 3.3 + Avispa Fukuoka 1.8 per game
Fouls 23.8
13% above a typical match · League average 21
Kashima 11.0 + Avispa Fukuoka 12.8 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
Léo Ceará
Kashima
28%
Shots
Léo Ceará
Kashima
2.2
Kashima · on target
S. Morooka
Kashima
1
Avispa Fukuoka · on target
S. Usui
Avispa Fukuoka
0.8
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Kashima
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 1.7
- scored
- 0.2
- conceded
- Scored in 19 of 20
- Clean sheet in 80%
When their goals arrive
Avispa Fukuoka
Away- 0.9
- pts/game
- 1
- scored
- 1.6
- conceded
- Scored in 15 of 20
- Clean sheet in 10%
When their goals arrive
Kashima · Recent form
- W2-1Nagoya Grampus
- W4-3Yokohama F. Marinos
- W5-0Vegalta Sendai
- W2-0Vissel Kobe
- L0-5Vissel Kobe
Avispa Fukuoka · Recent form
- W3-0Cerezo Osaka
- L0-1Vissel Kobe
- W3-2Osaka
- L1-2Kitakyushu
- W2-1JEF United Chiba
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Golazo's model makes Kashima the more likely winner at 61%, with the draw at 26%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, at 15%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 42%, and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
More J1 League matches
- Kashiwa Reysol vs V-varen NagasakiAug 21
- FC Tokyo vs JEF United ChibaAug 21
- Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo VerdyAug 22
- Kyoto Sanga vs Mito HollyhockAug 22
- Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulseAug 22
- Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba OsakaAug 22
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki FrontaleAug 22
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Vissel KobeAug 22
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.