Match preview
Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo prediction
Jagiellonia
Saburtalo
Jagiellonia
Saburtalo
Thu, Aug 20, 12:00 PM
Chorten Arena, Bialystok
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Jagiellonia the more likely winner at 53%, against 19% for Saburtalo and 28% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%, and puts both teams scoring at 46%. Behind that: Jagiellonia have scored in 2 of 2 league games this season, Saburtalo in 1 of 2.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Jagiellonia win
53%
Draw
28%
Saburtalo win
19%
What our model expects
JagielloniaPer gameSaburtaloBuilt from each side's recent results, shrunk toward the league average so a small sample can't run away with it. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.5 – 0.8
Total goals 2.4
Both teams score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Over 1.5 goals
70%
Jagiellonia clean sheet
43%
Saburtalo clean sheet
21%
What stands out
Fouls 24
14% above a typical match · League average 21
Jagiellonia 11.8 + Saburtalo 12.2 per game
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
N. Prelec
Jagiellonia
28%
Shots
Sergio Lozano
Jagiellonia
1.8
Jagiellonia · on target
Sergio Lozano
Jagiellonia
0.8
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Jagiellonia
At home- 3
- pts/game
- 2
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 2 of 2
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Saburtalo
Away- 1
- pts/game
- 0
- scored
- 0
- conceded
- Scored in 1 of 2
- Clean sheet in 100%
When their goals arrive
Jagiellonia · Recent form
- D1-1Rangers
- L0-2Widzew Łódź
- W2-1Rangers
- W2-1Motor Lublin
- W1-0Łomża
Saburtalo · Recent form
- L3-4Torpedo Kutaisi
- W2-1Larne
- D0-0Larne
- D1-1Slovan Bratislava
- W3-1Margveti 2006
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo?
Golazo's model makes Jagiellonia the more likely winner at 53%, with the draw at 28%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 46%, and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
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Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.