Match preview
Fluminense vs Palmeiras prediction
Fluminense
Palmeiras
Fluminense
4 in the table · 35 pts from 22
Palmeiras
1 in the table · 48 pts from 22
Sat, Aug 15, 03:30 PM
Rio de Janeiro
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Palmeiras the more likely winner at 42%, against 28% for Fluminense and 30% for the draw. It projects 2.4 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%, and puts both teams scoring at 50%. Behind that: Fluminense have scored in 19 of 22 league games this season, Palmeiras in 20 of 22.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Fluminense win
28%
Draw
30%
Palmeiras win
42%
What our model expects
FluminensePer gamePalmeirasNo book has priced this one yet, so it's our own read: attack and defence ratings fitted across the whole competition at once, which prices in who each side has actually played rather than treating a soft schedule as form. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.1 – 1.4
Total goals 2.4
Both teams score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Over 1.5 goals
71%
Fluminense clean sheet
26%
Palmeiras clean sheet
35%
Shots
League average 12.5
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
John Kennedy
Fluminense
27%
Shots
John Kennedy
Fluminense
2.3
Fluminense · on target
John Kennedy
Fluminense
1.3
Palmeiras · on target
J. López
Palmeiras
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Fluminense
At home- 2.18
- pts/game
- 1.64
- scored
- 1
- conceded
- Scored in 19 of 22
- Clean sheet in 27%
When their goals arrive
Palmeiras
Away- 2.18
- pts/game
- 1.91
- scored
- 0.73
- conceded
- Scored in 20 of 22
- Clean sheet in 45%
When their goals arrive
Fluminense · Recent form
- D1-1Botafogo
- L1-3Vasco DA Gama
- D0-0Vasco DA Gama
- D0-0Bahia
- D1-1Gremio
Palmeiras · Recent form
- D0-0Internacional
- L2-3Fortaleza EC
- W3-0Fortaleza EC
- W4-0Vitoria
- L1-2Atletico-MG
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Golazo's model makes Palmeiras the more likely winner at 42%, with the draw at 30%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 14%. The model projects 2.4 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 50%, and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
More Brasileirão matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.