Match preview
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol prediction
Cruzeiro
7 in the table · 30 pts from 21
Mirassol
14 in the table · 23 pts from 20
Sun, Aug 9, 10:00 AM
Belo Horizonte
The short answer
Golazo's model makes Cruzeiro the more likely winner at 55%, against 19% for Mirassol and 26% for the draw. It projects 2.6 goals in total, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%, and puts both teams scoring at 50%. Behind that: Cruzeiro have scored in 17 of 21 league games this season, Mirassol in 14 of 20.
A projection from each side's recent form, not a prediction anyone should treat as certain. Published before kick-off and graded in public afterwards.
Who wins
Cruzeiro win
55%
Draw
26%
Mirassol win
19%
What our model expects
Anchored to the de-vigged consensus of 49 bookmakers, then expanded into the full picture they don't publish: every scoreline, both teams to score, clean sheets. We tested our own goal model against the market over 1,420 matches and the market won, so this starts from the sharper number. Projections, not certainties.
Expected goals
1.7 – 0.9
Total goals 2.6
Both teams score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Cruzeiro clean sheet
40%
Mirassol clean sheet
18%
Corners
League average 5
Cards
League average 2.25
Shots
League average 12.5
Possession
Players to watch
Season rates per 90 minutes, from players with enough minutes to mean something.
Most likely scorer
N. Villareal
Cruzeiro
32%
Shots
Nathan Fogaça
Mirassol
2.3
Cruzeiro · on target
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
0.9
Mirassol · on target
Nathan Fogaça
Mirassol
1
The record behind it
What each side has actually done this season — the counts under the percentages above.
Cruzeiro
At home- 1.45
- pts/game
- 1.45
- scored
- 1.18
- conceded
- Scored in 17 of 21
- Clean sheet in 27%
When their goals arrive
Mirassol
Away- 0.56
- pts/game
- 0.89
- scored
- 1.56
- conceded
- Scored in 14 of 20
- Clean sheet in 0%
When their goals arrive
Cruzeiro · Recent form
- W2-0Chapecoense-sc
- D0-0Chapecoense-sc
- W1-0Coritiba
- L0-1Botafogo
- W2-1Internacional
Mirassol · Recent form
- L0-1Gremio
- D1-1Gremio
- W2-1Remo
- D1-1Vasco DA Gama
- W2-1Gremio
This is the free half.
The projection above is what our model thinks. When it disagrees with the bookmakers by enough to be worth backing, that becomes a pick on the daily board — and every one of those is graded in public, win or lose.
Common questions
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Golazo's model makes Cruzeiro the more likely winner at 55%, with the draw at 26%. It is a projection from recent form, not a certainty.
What is the most likely score in Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. The model projects 2.6 goals in total. Any one exact score is unlikely on its own.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Golazo's model puts both teams scoring at 50%, and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
More Brasileirão matches
Analysis and entertainment only. Golazo does not accept bets or hold funds. 18+.